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Goldman: Tesla shares to drop 30% in the next 6 months due to increased competition

Key Points
  • Goldman Sachs resumes coverage on Tesla shares with a sell rating, predicting a lower share of the electric car market.  
  • Analyst David Tamberrino cites the significant number of electric vehicle launches from large automakers over the next several years.
Newly manufactured Tesla vehicles are placed on transport trailers from a large inventory of newly made vehicles in Burbank, California, August 24, 2018. 
Mike Blake | Reuters

Tesla's electric car sales will suffer due to increased competition from other luxury automakers, according to Goldman Sachs.

The firm resumed coverage of Tesla with a sell rating, predicting the competition will cut into the company's share of the electric car market.

"We see the medium-to-longer term industry backdrop as challenging for Tesla's products; this follows from an increasing number of EV launches from both traditional OEMs and other start-up competitors — at a time when the company's product cadence hits a gap," analyst David Tamberrino said in a note to clients Tuesday. "We believe the company will see pressure to its lead in EVs as competition catches up."

Tesla shares were down 4.2 percent Tuesday.

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Tamberrino gave a $210 six-month price target for Tesla shares, representing 30 percent downside to Friday's closing price.

The analyst noted the significant number of electric vehicle launches from large automakers — including Audi, BMW, Jaguar and Porsche — expected over the next several years.

"With regional mandates and tightening CO2 standards, both traditional and new entrants are expected to launch several EVs in the coming years — with a large crescendo in the early-to-mid 2020s," he said. "Altogether, we remain bearish on the company's ability to execute, achieve its targeted production ramp/margins, and sustain FCF [free cash flow] generation."

Asked for comment, a Tesla spokesman referred to statements made by executives, including CEO and co-founder Elon Musk, during the second quarter conference call.

Last month, Goldman Sachs suspended its coverage on Tesla shares after the bank said it was acting as a financial advisor "in connection with a matter that is fundamental" to the carmaker. That was after Musk created a firestorm by tweeting that he was considering taking the company private. He has since said the company will remain publicly traded.

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