— This is the script of CNBC's news report for China's CCTV on September 13, 2018, Thursday.
US authority forecasts hurricane Florence that is landing soon will be an extremely dangerous storm, and it's likely to be one of the 10 costliest hurricanes in U.S. history, with $27bn loss. Then, let's have a look over the market turbulence brought by this hurricane. First, at the petroleum front,
As we know, Gulf of Mexico is the world's leading producer of crude oil, and almost all America's crude oil industry is in states along the gulf coast. Among that, there are countless onshore drillings and Sea Wells in the Gulf of Mexico, as well as oil pipeline, which connect US inland and Gulf Coast.
The supply side will under pressure and causing short-term oil price rise, if the hurricane Florence damage production facility.
And we've seen over the last few trading days that the crude oil market is pricing in a reduction in supply from hurricanes. For example, on Tuesday, at the closing in US market, Brent crude futures rose 2.2 percent; WTI gained 2.5 percent. In U.S. trading on Wednesday, those 2 oil benchmarks increased again, with 0.8 percent and 1.6 percent rise overnight.
Meanwhile, power may also be at risk of shortages and mass blackouts. Currently, many states have declared states of emergency, including South Carolina, North Carolina and Virginia, there are 16 16 nuclear power plants in these 3 states. Operators of the plants also forecast that some of the facilities will be hit by the hurricane, and the plants are scheduled to close 12 hours before the storm, affecting jobs in the local energy industry and putting pressure on the local economy.
The U.S. department of labor data shows that the number of people applying for unemployment benefits shows a sharp rise after serious natural disasters such as hurricane. After last year's hurricanes Harvey, for example, American jobless claims in a week jumped 62000, to 298000 people, set a record high since February 2015.
Destruction and loss are unavoidable though, in stock market, some business may benefit from the increase in demand for certain items. For instance, in a new report, Morgan Stanley noted the impact of hurricanes on U.S. stocks, with seasonal trading patterns. And some industries will get temporary motivation, such as home improvement retailer, usually, after the natural disasters, sales at these retailers tend to grow as damaged homes need to be repaired.
And Home Depot share was up more than 3.6 percent over the past week, trading at a record high, Lowe's share gained more than 5.4 percent over the past week, also hitting a closing high.
The report shows, in hurricane season last year, home decoration retail shares got the biggest boost in all stocks affected by hurricane, with an average gain of 18.8 percent.
Let's have a look of hurricane itself; if we review history, we can know the most destructive hurricane in U.S. history was hurricane Katrina in 2005, at that time, this disaster caused at least $81.2bn economy loss, it is the deadliest hurricane in US history. And the following practice influence brought by hurricane Florence, we will keep an eye on it.