— This is the script of CNBC's news report for China's CCTV on October 9, 2018, Tuesday.
In the following several years, plastic and other petrochemical industry will replace auto industry as the driver to oil prices, actually many living goods are chemical products that made from petroleum, such as plastic bottle, beauty products and fertilizer.
In 2017 global crude oil demand, 12% of that was used in petrochemicals, according to data from IEA, and IEA estimated that this figure will increase to 14% in 2030 and 16% in 2050.
Many people who work in petroleum industry worry that prompting clean energy, including popularity of electronic vehicles, will low the reliance and demand to petroleum, while the IEA's report said that the slowdown demand in auto industry will compensate by the increasing demand in petrochemicals.
Fatih Birol, executive director at the IEA
When we discuss oil demand, peak oil demand (and) oil market dynamics, the focus is solely on cars - which is completely wrong. When we look at the next 10 to 15 years, the single most important driver of global oil demand growth is petrochemicals.
IEA thinks market has ignored the growing demand in petrochemicals and it should start to put an eye on this trend.
It's estimated that transport fuels will account for 22% of oil demand in 2050, down from 27% in 2017.
Petroleum industry, however, is looking to account for 1 third in the global rising oil demand by 2030 and nearly 50% by 2050.
On specific needs, global demand for petrochemicals last year was 12 million barrels a day, about 12 percent of total oil demand, which is expected to grow to 18 million barrels a day, with a 50% gain.
The report says there are more and more restrictions on the use of plastics though; environmental pollution has pushed many countries to forbid or partly forbid plastic bags, or charge on one-time use. And some brands discard using plastic straws etc. But IEA expects negatively, saying moves that governments try to reduce carbon emission, encourage recycling use and push to cut down on plastics one-time use may just dent the growing of petroleum slightly, as emerging countries have great demand on plastic products.
A lot of petroleum giants, such as Exxon Mobil and Shell, are planning to invest on new petrochemical plants in the next several decades, doubling down on the rising demand in plastics. So, we can foresee that the plastic and other petrochemicals industries will become more related, and have a reciprocal relationship with the demand in current transportation industry.