The massive market transformation this month that some on Wall Street called a "once in a decade opportunity" might have just been a one-off technical move because of taxes.Marketsread more
The Pentagon will deploy U.S. forces to the Middle East on the heels of the attack on Saudi Arabian oil facilities, United States Secretary of Defense Mark Esper announced...Defenseread more
CNBC did a deep dive through the most recent Wall Street research to find stocks that analysts say are underappreciated.Marketsread more
Shares of MasterCard are up 46% this year, and 1120% since 2011, getting a boost from the strong U.S. consumer.Investingread more
CNBC sat in on an "empathy training" at Amazon PillPack's Somerville offices, which is part of new hire orientation.Technologyread more
Trade with China is the 'big unknown' for the Federal Reserve as it decides how best to support the U.S. economy, says Council on Foreign Relations Director of International...Futures Nowread more
Lobbying experts said the visit is likely an attempt to be in lawmakers' ears as they consider legislation that would impact Facebook.Technologyread more
Yardeni Research's Edward Yardeni believes the U.S. economy is picking up steam.Trading Nationread more
Iran's audacious drone and cruise missile attack on Saudi Arabia's oil producing facilities has provided a critical test yet for the Trump administration's foreign policy. A...Politicsread more
Chinese trade negotiators suddenly canceled a visit to meet U.S. farmers after they wrapped up trade talks in Washington this week.Marketsread more
The U.S. economy is poised for growth that's better than the International Monetary Fund projects, and there's nothing on the domestic front that could knock it into a recession, according to one of the world's most closely followed economists.
Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic advisor for Allianz, told CNBC on Tuesday that the U.S. economy is "in a good place in terms of growth, the U.S. economy is in a good place in terms of attracting capital."
That stood in some contrast to the IMF, which maintained its prediction of 2.9 percent growth for the U.S. this year, but reduced its 2019 American growth prediction from 2.7 percent to 2.5 percent in its World Economic Outlook published on Tuesday.
For his part, El-Erian said the IMF "is too pessimistic" about the world's largest economy.
"We've got three drivers of domestic demand all hitting at the same time: government spending — which is going to get stronger not weaker — household spending, and business investment," he told CNBC's Nancy Hungerford at the Barclays Asia Forum in Singapore. "That takes the U.S. through the next couple of years at least, so it wouldn't surprise me if we get 3 percent growth for this year and next year."
El-Erian said that any disturbances to U.S. economic growth were likely to come from beyond its borders.
"We get to a recession if there are spillbacks from the rest of the world. The U.S. on its own need not have a recession," he said.
"Yes, this has been a very long expansion, but it's been a very slow expansion, so this is qualitatively different from what we've seen in the past. I think the concern is about the rest of the world," the chief economic advisor added.
The concern, according to El-Erian, "is about whether the U.S. gets spillbacks, either through its own action because it triggers a trade war — as opposed to trade skirmishes — or because we get major disruptions in Europe and in the emerging world."
Although some analysts are already calling the ongoing dispute, and tit-for-tat tariffs, between the U.S. and China a trade war," El-Erian emphasized that he did not see it as having yet reached that level. That was an opinion that echoed private equity billionaire David Rubenstein telling CNBC earlier Tuesday that "this trade dispute will be more of a skirmish, not a war."
Still, El-Erian stopped short of mirroring Rubenstein's prediction that the disagreement would get resolved before any meaningful damage was done. In fact, the Allianz chief economic advisor said there is a 25 percent chance of a trade war.
"Why so low? Because my assumption has been that China will understand what Korea, Mexico, Canada and the EU have understood," he said. "Which is: If the U.S. decides to focus on sticks and not carrots, and if the U.S. is willing to incur the cost of trade skirmishes, it wins. It wins every single bilateral trade conflict."
If that's the case, El-Erian said, then the "right" strategy for other countries is to "provide concessions early."
"Korea realized this, Mexico realized this, Canada realized this, the EU is realizing this, and my assumption: It's a matter of time until China realizes that," he added.