Soybean farm belt sticks with GOP in midterms but Democrats gain ground, CNBC analysis shows

J.B. Forbes | St. Louis Post-Dispatch | TNS | Getty Images

Truck driver Marion Howard watches soy beans load into his truck on Wednesday, Oct. 11, 2017, at Chris Crosskno's farm near Denton, Mo.

• Soybean farmers in the American heartland largely stood by President Donald Trump in this year's midterm elections, despite the economic pain inflicted on many of them by an ongoing trade war with China.
• But while only a handful of farm belt House districts flipped from red to blue, Democrats narrowed the margin of victory in what have been reliably Republican strongholds, according to a CNBC analysis.
• And that shift to the left could give Democrats a head start as the 2020 political cycle gets underway.

Soybean farmers in the American heartland largely stood by President Donald Trump in this year's midterm elections, despite the economic pain inflicted on many of them by an ongoing trade war with China.

But while only a handful of farm belt House districts flipped from red to blue, Democrats narrowed the margin of victory in what have been reliably Republican strongholds, according to a CNBC analysis. And that shift to the left could give Democrats a head start as the 2020 political cycle gets underway.

"Much revolves around this remarkable bean," said Jim Leach, a law professor at the University of Iowa. "Farmers and their local communities will not forget if Trump reduces their access to markets and instead increases their indebtedness to banks."

For now, Republicans have held on to most of the congressional districts that produce the bulk of U.S. soybeans, according to an analysis of the voter turnouts and the latest data available from the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Of the 36 congressional districts with soybean plantings of more than half a million acres, all but five will send Republicans to the next Congress. But the GOP margins of victory tightened in most of those districts, part of a broader "blue shift" in voter turnouts during the recent midterm election.

That shift could be a harbinger of wider GOP dissatisfaction in these districts as the 2020 presidential race nears.

Republicans flipped only one House seat in soybean country this year, in Minnesota's 1st District, which became open after five-term incumbent Tim Walz decided not to seek re-election. Republican Jim Hagedorn, the son of a former congressman, squeaked past Democrat Dan Feehan, a former deputy assistant secretary of Defense, with less than a 1 percent margin.

Democrats scored their biggest farm belt victories in Iowa, where Democratic state Rep. Abby Finkenauer defeated two-term incumbent Republican Rod Blum in the 1st District. In Iowa's 3rd District, newcomer Cindy Axne narrowly ousted Republican incumbent David Young.

That left Republicans with just one of Iowa's four congressional districts, down from three in the current Congress.

Timothy Hagle, a University of Iowa political scientist, notes that trade wasn't the top issue in the campaign and that those two districts had been shifting blue for some time. But that may change if the trade war persists into the 2020 presidential campaign, he said.

"Iowa will start to see contenders for the Democrats' presidential nomination pretty soon," he said. "And I'm sure at least some of them will focus on agricultural issues and attempt to highlight farmers' concerns."

A lot depends on how much longer the Trump administration maintains its standoff with Chinese trade negotiators. But as unsold soybeans begin overflowing silos and storage elevators, farmers are already suffering through a prolonged financial drought.

Trump's trade war with Beijing comes as the U.S. farm economy enters its fifth year of economic pain, as bumper harvests have depressed prices and farm income. Corn and soybean prices are hovering near decade lows, and this year's bumper harvest is further swelling U.S. farmers' massive stocks of unsold grain.

Overall, U.S. net farm income will fall to $65.7 billion this year, down 47 percent from just five years ago, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture forecasts.

That was before the Trump administration embarked on its tit-for-tat trade war with Beijing, starting with a 30 percent tariff on solar panels in January, touching off a widening of trade tariffs by both sides.

In July, Trump slapped a 25 percent tariff on $34 billion of Chinese imports, prompting China to impose a 25 percent duty on American exports, including soybeans. The impact was swiftly felt among soybean farmers. Last year, China bought about 32 million tons, but now buys almost none.

"Most (farmers) seemed to understand that overall trade with China was a problem and they were willing to endure some short-term pain for long-term gain," said Hagle. "If the pain goes on too long it will obviously be a concern for farmers and, potentially, for 2020."

— Reuters contributed to this story.