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Renowned energy trader Mark Fisher says the faltering oil market is close to bottoming out, and investors can be relatively sure that crude futures will jump by $10 rather than drop by that amount.
"I think there's limited downside," the MBF Clearing founder and CEO told CNBC's "Fast Money: Halftime Report" on Monday. "If you ask me what the next $10 is, is it up or down? I think it's up."
That move may not come for another month or two, according to Fisher.
Crude futures have tumbled more than $20 a barrel from their four-year highs last month, plunging into a bear market. U.S. crude was trading higher at almost $57 on Monday, while Brent crude was roughly flat at under $67 a barrel, following three straight days of gains for both benchmarks.
Fisher said he believes both surging crude supply and fears over deteriorating oil demand contributed to the pullback. However, he reiterated his view that the worst of the sell-off is due to momentum trading and hedge funds dumping crude futures in order to buy natural gas, which has surged about 45 percent over the last month.
"When that trade is finally unwound and when ... you start seeing ... some more negative stats with no negative price action that's ... when you'd want to buy the dip in crude," Fisher said.
In general, Fisher said "bad news, good price action" is an indicator to buy.
As an example, Fisher pointed to news reports that the CIA believes Saudi Arabia's crown prince, a close ally of the Trump administration, ordered the killing last month of Washington Post columnist and U.S. resident Jamal Khashoggi. Saudi Arabia is the world's top oil exporter.
Fisher said if the United States finds that the crown prince was complicit in the slaying, and the market dips intraday but rallies into the end of the session, that would be a sign to buy oil.