— This is the script of CNBC's news report for China's CCTV on November 6, 2018, Tuesday.
How will the U.S. midterm elections affect the future development of U.S. policy? We can make a prediction in three cases. So the best thing for Trump and the Republican is that republican members continue to hold majorities in both houses of congress, this is described as RED WAVE, because the flag of the Republican Party is red. Then that might means for the next two years, the White House would be able to ensure continuity in the policies of the Trump administration, including a second round of tax reform aimed at the middle class, another 10% tax cut, deregulation of financial markets, another attempt to repeal Obamacare. At the same time, bills such as border wall funding would be easier to pass if both houses of congress had more republican seats.
But current polls suggest it won't be easy for republicans to keep their majorities in both houses of congress if they want to keep the Red Wave. Trump worried publicly for the first time that republicans might not be able to hold on to their majority in the House of Representatives and lose control of the house when he presented on a campaign rally last Friday.
So what happens if Democrats win the House? That's the second case we're going to analyze: the blue house. This blue color represents the Democratic Party. First on the legislative front, the United States could return to a split state of partisan gridlock. The next set of important issues, including infrastructure spending at home and trade policy internationally, are likely to be rejected by a majority of house Democrats, making the Trump administration with little achievement in the following two years. Even, politically, House of Representatives may start impeachment proceedings against the President.
Scott Nations
President / CIO Nationashares
I think the Democrats will probaly take control of the house representitives. It will be very close but I think they probaly will. I believe the Republicans will maintain control of the Senate. So that means that our congress will be bifurcated. That will make things a little bit more difficult for President Trump.
For nearly a month, there has been talk of a "Blue Wave," that is to say let the democratic hold the majority in both houses of congress
Well, if the Democrats do get a full win, it would certainly be a mortal blow to the Gop and the Trump administration. Not only will we see a congressional push for presidential impeachment proceedings, but also Democrats will be able to wield influence on the new U.S. presidential election in 2020, reducing trump's chances of re-election
Meanwhile, congressional rejection of government spending and other bills could push the government into a full-blown shutdown. And for financial markets, a disruption to trump's policy continuity, and more uncertainty for the U.S. government, will leave stocks facing more volatility. So these are the three possible midterm election outcomes. There are plenty of signs that the democratic electorate is active and with high aspirations. However, the current strength of the U.S. economy, as well as trade protection initiatives since Trump took office, will also spur a large number of republicans to vote. So it is hard to say which party will get a full win, and we are more likely to see a close race and greater uncertainty in this midterm election