Tariffs stemming from President Donald Trump's trade conflicts could cost Americans $915 each, or $2,400 per household, in the form of higher prices, lower wages and lower investment returns in 2019, according to a new study.
If the tariffs stay in place, the study says, the losses would add up to $17,300 per household by 2030.
The study, commissioned by the lobbying shop for Koch Industries and conducted by consulting firm ImpactECON, looked at the potential cumulative impact of tariffs. The conservative Koch political network has argued against the Trump administration's protectionist trade policies.
The new study comes as Trump prepares to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping at this week's G-20 meeting, amid the U.S.-China trade standoff. The Koch-commissioned study assumes that the administration's steel and aluminum tariffs and quotas remain, as well as retaliatory tariffs U.S. trade partners have put in place.
It also assumes a 25 percent tariff on all imports from China and retaliation. It factors in a 25 percent tariff on all imports of autos and auto parts and retaliation, exempting Canada and Mexico since they have negotiated that in the new U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement to replace NAFTA.
"Any trade debate should convey a clear understanding of the effect of the U.S.' and its trading partners' actions on consumers, businesses and supply chains," said Philip Ellender, Koch Industries president of government and public affairs. "At Koch, we support free and open exchange as a means to help people improve their lives. To that end, this report should serve as a unique and useful resource for policymakers as they consider the consequences of trade actions for all parties involved."
The study predicts steep long-term job losses. While strong economic growth in the U.S. initially will protect workers from job losses, the tariffs will lead to the loss of 2.75 million American jobs, the study predicts. Low-skilled workers in agricultural and manufacturing jobs would be hit the hardest under this scenario. In addition, the study figures an additional 700,000 workers will lose jobs but be able to find work in other industries.
Meanwhile, the study expects the tariffs to sap $365 billion from U.S. GDP next year. Overall, it expects GDP losses to total $2.8 trillion from 2019 to 2030.