For a market that's become increasingly jittery over the U.S. economy, Goldman Sachs has a message: All is not lost.
Wall Street's head-spinning volatility, which last week shaved more than 1,000 points off the Dow Jones Industrial Average, has pushed stocks into correction territory and raised fears for 2019. Although falling stocks and rising interest rates will continue to weigh on sentiment, those negatives are likely to be offset by higher wages and oil prices in retreat, Goldman said in a research note to clients Saturday.
"Three of the key drivers of consumer spending send a positive message for the near-term outlook," the bank's analysts wrote.
"First, real disposable income is likely to continue its strong growth due to accelerating wage growth, and recent declines in the oil price are likely to be a significant tailwind to spending in 2019," Goldman said. November's jobs data released on Friday showed lower-than-expected payrolls growth but wages growing at the fastest rate in nearly a decade.
"Second, the saving rate looks elevated relative to the high level of household wealth, even after the recent sell-off," the analysts wrote. And with consumer spending — which comprises 2/3rd of the vast U.S. economy — still strong, "consumer sentiment is likely to stay elevated, reflecting strong underlying economic fundamentals as well as optimism about the labor market and income growth," the firm said.