Another sharp sell-off has investors reeling on Friday, as the Dow and both dove back into correction territory. The downturn has put more than half of S&P 500 stocks in a bear market, which means they are down more than 20 percent off their recent respective highs, and has put the index on track for its worst quarter since 2011.
Slowing economic growth, trade war fears and a Fed meeting will be at the top of investors' minds next week.
Here's what four experts are saying:
Senior portfolio manager Kevin Divney is trying to make sense of what steel tariffs are actually doing to the Chinese economy, noting, "There still is that tone of 'what is the transparency into the underlying Chinese economy?' What is the data, and how is it being reported?"
There's also the question of what effects those tariffs are having in the U.S. Given the structure of the U.S. economy, he says, the knock-on effects of the tariffs on China's economy could have bigger implications for producers in the U.S. than the tariffs themselves.
"The actual impact of tariffs, if you talk to steelmakers or automakers, it can be material, it can be disruptive, but as a proportion of the total economy, it's much smaller than the aggregate Chinese economy decelerating," Divney said.
Portfolio manager Alessio de Longis says that even though global markets are generally slowing, 2019 could be a strong year for emerging markets if there is more consistently positive news on trade.
"We could find ourselves, actually, in a situation where – over the next six months – emerging market asset classes may do much better than developed market asset classes. You saw it already in the October-November correction. Emerging markets being the most risky, they did not underperform," de Longis said. "You could have an interesting pause, where the first half of 2019 actually delivers a risk appetite surge."
Chief investment strategist Sam Stovall sees a slowdown in the future, but thinks those fearing a recession need to pump the breaks. "The key is, this is simply going to be a slowdown because the bar has been set so high," says Stovall.
"This time last year, expectations for earnings in the U.S. were a gain of 11 and a half percent. Today, that's a doubling, so we're looking at something close to 23 percent."
Stovall says more growth is still on the horizon, but we're likely to pare those numbers down pretty significantly. "The street is looking for about 7 and a half percent earnings growth in 2019, but that's down from 10 percent at the end of September. Our belief is we see something between 2 to 5 percent."
Global CIO Kirk Hartman says that the U.S. economy is in pretty good shape, and he has a plan for his portfolio in 2019. He's bullish, saying, "I think, for a professional buyer, there are great opportunities here in this market, and you have to take advantage of that."
Those opportunities come in the form of stocks that produce higher yields. "What you want to look at is bond-like stocks," he says, "I like the VHT sector, I like healthcare. I think you want to buy bond-like stocks that don't have the duration risks. So, I don't think you want to overdo this, you don't want to look at things like utilities and REITs."