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— This is the script of CNBC's news report for China's CCTV on January 16, 2018, Wednesday.
Theresa May seems doesn't have many choices after voting down in BREXIT Deal. Let's have a look over the potential followings. First, no-deal BREXIT is an option but it's also the worst scenario that many want to avoid. A notable move in the market is:
Pounds soared rather than declined after May lost big on vote. That is because this vote result will push the British government to postpone the original BREXIT date and that reduce the possibility of no-deal BREXIT, analysts said.
For example, Deutsche Bank predicted the Britain will delay the official date of BREXIT at least 3 months, which originally set on 29, March, after the BREXIT Deal rejected. Another following trend is May has to re-negotiate with EU in short period of time.
As for new round BREXIT negotiation, May probably cooperate with British Parliament on negotiation content, so it is not ruled out that both EU and British Parliament will step back in the future, sending the amended BREXIT Deal got approval in the parliament.
Another scenario may look negative: forcing Theresa may to resign, triggering snap general election or even the 2nd round referendum, let people choose again whether to leave the EU. No doubt, that kind of scenario cast uncertainty on British and BREXIT. But what is certain is also crucial now is Labour Party takes actions at this moment, immediately declaring a vote of no-confidence vote to current British government.
And this no-confidence vote will be held on Wednesday local time. But May's chances of losing the vote are expected to be slim, as the ruling party will unite to give her a strong chance of a majority, so she is likely to survive as long as she does not resign. If May lose in the no-confidence vote, then the new round of general election and referendum are coming soon. While the British government is going on the issue of BREXIT, some industry bodies have already started to plan the post-BREXIT affairs.
This wall shows the BREXIT move plans of some major financial institutions. For instance, HSBC intends to move up to 1,000 jobs to new EU area, UBS will move its EU headquarter to Frankfurt after BREXIT, Barclays will set EU headquarter in Dublin, and J.P. Morgan will strengthen its business in Dublin, Frankfurt and Luxembourg, 4,000 of Britain's 160,000 workers could be transferred to the EU, meanwhile, Citigroup will bolster its operations in Frankfurt, Luxembourg, and Paris. And Goldmansachs will raise its presence in Frankfurt and Paris.
According EY's estimation, the number of jobs that could relocate from London to Europe stands at just over 7,000. And around 2,000 new European roles in the financial services sector could be hired locally in response to BREXIT.
So what we can make sure in the series of uncertainty in the BREXIT is the market is ready to leave EU, while the British government has not ready yet. We will keep an eye on this issue.