— This is the script of CNBC's news report for China's CCTV on January 17, 2018, Thursday.
With U.S. government shutdown lasting, more and more negative impacts floats; even inside the White House has upgraded estimation about economy impacts. For example, some White House senior officer told CNBC that the Trump administration has doubled its estimate of the cost of a government shutdown.
Before that, the estimation is U.S. economy growth lost 0.1% for every 2 weeks shutdown, but the latest one is economy growth shades 0.1% for each one week.
That is to say, if government shutdown lasts till end of Jan, than U.S. GDP will off 0.5% in growth. That that changes is because the number of workers and contractors who are furloughed now is beyond expectation and the economic impact of the federal shutdown has been greater than expected
BRETT RYAN
Deutsche Bank Senior US Economist
It certainly presents a risk. i think the white house's numbers make sense if you assume about a million federal contractors that are also not getting paid
CEO of J.P. Morgan Chase Jamie Dimon, who held optimistic views to U.S. economy, warned that the political standoff in Washington may cost U.S. economy and J.P. Morgan Chase a lot.
Jamie Dimon
CEO of JP Morgan Chase
what I was referring to was an economist who said that if it lasts for the whole quarter, it could reverse the growth of the quarter, which might have been 2 to 2.5, it could be to zero. And I don't know that-it's really hard to figure out what the shutdown does to the economy
The over-expected influence even affected Trump himself: State of the Union Address, which is set on 29 Jan, may have security problems because of government shutdown.
For instance, Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the House, citing the government shutdown, urged President Donald Trump in a letter Wednesday to either reschedule his upcoming State of the Union address or to deliver it in writing to Congress. And 1977, a State of the Union address has never been delivered during a government shutdown," wrote the speaker, Hours after Pelosi's letter became public, Homeland Security Secretary Kirstjen Nielsen said: "They are fully prepared to support and secure the State of the Union."
The discrepancy does raise a big question mark over whether the state of the union address will be delivered on time. At the end, U.S. stocks gained overnight, government shutdown still cast shadow over financial market, and IPO performances reflect that.
Generally, Jan will set the whole year's sentiment for IPO business, but SEC, which has the life-and-death power of an IPO, is partial closed, thousands of staff was furloughed without payment, what's more, all IPO reviews and approvals stop. 2019 was projected as a strong year for IPO, 160 companies submitted their IPO plans till now, including UBER and LYFT, the ride-hailing apps that are likely to be the biggest IPOs of the year.
However, the lack of scrutiny and approval has put a damper on many companies, when will SEC restart reviews has not confirmed, and the delayed IPO may drag on market sentiment. We will keep an eye on the influence caused by U.S. government shutdown.