Netflix and one other high-flying stock could be setting up for a steep drop

December's destruction is already fading from view.

Since last month's lows, the average S&P 500 stock has bounced 15 percent with some high flyers such as Chipotle, Citigroup, Twitter and Netflix pulling off a much steeper rebound.

A pullback could be ahead for one of those names, says Craig Johnson, chief market technician at Piper Jaffray.

"You can see the huge move here in Citigroup, you're now getting somewhat overbought and from our perspective, maybe this rally has a little bit further to go but you're running into the 200-day moving average, around $65, and after that you've got some resistance around $75," Johnson said Friday on CNBC's "Trading Nation."

Citigroup's relative strength index has peaked at 74 during this month-long rebound, its most overbought level since the beginning of 2018. Any reading above 70 on the RSI typically suggests overbought conditions.

There is one macro factor that would make Johnson change his tune on Citigroup, though.

"I want to see an improvement in 10-year bond yields to give me the confidence and conviction that this is a longer-term trade and not just a quick advance at this point in time," he said.

Higher bond yields generally boost bank profitability. The yield on the 10-year note, which moves inversely to price, has been below 2.8 percent for a month.

Netflix could also be set to pullback after an extreme run-up in the past month, says Gina Sanchez, CEO of Chantico Global. She says lofty expectations over its growth trajectory could be its downfall.

"If you look at the outlook for Netflix, they're having to raise prices in order to boost their revenue numbers because they had a revenue miss, so that tells you that their chance of really moving the needle in the U.S. is pretty done at this point," Sanchez said Friday on "Trading Nation."

Netflix's paid memberships in the U.S. in its fourth quarter rose by 11 percent. The company has forecast 60.1 million paid members in its first quarter, up 9 percent from a year earlier.


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Trading Nation is a multimedia financial news program that shows investors and traders how to use the news of the day to their advantage. This is where experts from across the financial world – including macro strategists, technical analysts, stock-pickers, and traders who specialize in options, currencies, and fixed income – come together to find the best ways to capitalize on recent developments in the market. Trading Nation: Where headlines become opportunities.

Michael Santoli

Michael Santoli joined CNBC in October 2015 as a Senior Markets Commentator, based at the network's Global Headquarters in Englewood Cliffs, N.J.  Santoli brings his extensive markets expertise to CNBC's Business Day programming, with a regular appearance on CNBC's “Closing Bell (M-F, 3PM-5PM ET).   In addition, he contributes to CNBCand CNBC PRO, writing regular articles and creating original digital videos.

Previously, Santoli was a Senior Columnist at Yahoo Finance, where he wrote analysis and commentary on the stock market, corporate news and the economy. He also appeared on Yahoo Finance video programs, where he offered insights on the most important business stories of the day, and was a regular contributor to CNBC and other networks.

Follow Michael Santoli on Twitter @michaelsantoli

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