Markets

Stocks would have to drop nearly 50% for the market to be fairly valued: Morgan Creek Capital

Key Points
  • Stocks could still lose 50 percent of valuation this year, Morgan Creek Capital's Mark Yusko warns.
  • "Remember the tech bubble popped, there was this return-to-normal rally ... and then it was downhill from there," he says, calling current conditions "tech bubble 2.0."
  • "We don't have to get to fair value, but the way math works for every day you're above average you've gotta spend a day below average," he says.
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Bear market will continue through 2020, says Mark Yusko

Morgan Creek Capital's Mark Yusko is sticking by his October call that stocks must drop nearly 50 percent to reach fair value.

On CNBC Wednesday, the firm's founder and chief investment officer doubled down on his Oct. 11, 2018 prediction that equity prices could lose half of their value. He likened the current market conditions to the tech bubble of the early 2000s.

"Remember the tech bubble popped, there was this return-to-normal rally from late December [2000] through January of 2001, and then it was downhill from there" and stocks did not return to those "crazy valuations," Yusko said on "Power Lunch." "And I think we've got the same playing out here: the tech bubble 2.0 popped" in the final three months of 2018 with the broader market.

Yusko said tech giants like Cisco, Microsoft, Intel and Qualcomm were overvalued during the first tech bubble in the mid-to-late 1990s and have yet to recover those values. He criticized current tech leaders like Netflix and Amazon that have sky-high earnings multiples.

After Yusko's October call, the S&P 500 fell about 13 percent to a 2018 closing low on Christmas Eve of 2,351. But his prediction of a further fall didn't happen. The index since Dec. 24 has recovered nearly all its losses due to a strong January start on Wall Street.

For the S&P 500 to drop nearly 50 percent since Oct. 11, it would have to get to a level around 1,364.

"We don't have to get to fair value, but the way math works for every day you're above average you've gotta spend a day below average," Yusko said.

The S&P 500 traded 0.2 percent higher on Wednesday, closing at 2,638.7 after breaking a four-session winning streak Tuesday.