Facebook, up 20 percent from the lows, could see another double-digit rally

A positive quarter for Apple has its shares rallying hard Wednesday after a brutal three months.

Facebook , another FAANG name no stranger to sell-offs, is about to report on its own quarter. Options activity suggests investors aren't as optimistic heading into its report out after the bell, said Oppenheimer's head of institutional equity derivatives, Alon Rosin.

"The regulatory headlines continue to put a lid on the stock, multiple compression concerns, expense margin concerns," Rosin said Tuesday on CNBC's "Trading Nation." "It feels like Facebook is actually coming in with negative sentiment into the print."

The past year has seen the social media giant facing ever-increasing headwinds from regulatory scrutiny out of Washington, D.C., criticism over data mining and consumer privacy, and forecasts for slowing revenue growth. Since its record high last July, its shares have tumbled 33 percent.

However, Rosin has a contrarian call on Facebook which could mark a double-digit rally in the coming months.

"We like how it acted in late December, how it held $125 to $130," said Rosin. "The company is making a lot of money. It's just a matter of investor sentiment and clarity on management and 'Are they aware of how to handle all these concerns?' We're going to make the bet that they are."

Facebook consolidated through a wild December to outperform the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. Since hitting a Christmas Eve low, its shares have rallied 19 percent.

"We like setting up a longer-term trade. We're selling a June put, the $125, to buy a $165 call," said Rosin. "We're going to take the play that Facebook can make its way back to the highs this year if they can overcome these issues. It's not necessarily a play on [this] quarter."

Rosin's options play is a bet that the stock will move as high as $165 by June expiration. That represents 12 percent upside from Wednesday's price.

"The June $165 calls will go up in value, the put will decrease so we like the no-spend here and we like the fact of having that longer-dated duration to give the company a chance to make nice with the regulators," he said.

Facebook is set to report after the bell Wednesday. The social network is expected to post a 5.6 percent decline in adjusted profit for its December-ended quarter, but a 26 percent increase in sales, according to FactSet.


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Trading Nation is a multimedia financial news program that shows investors and traders how to use the news of the day to their advantage. This is where experts from across the financial world – including macro strategists, technical analysts, stock-pickers, and traders who specialize in options, currencies, and fixed income – come together to find the best ways to capitalize on recent developments in the market. Trading Nation: Where headlines become opportunities.

Michael Santoli

Michael Santoli joined CNBC in October 2015 as a Senior Markets Commentator, based at the network's Global Headquarters in Englewood Cliffs, N.J.  Santoli brings his extensive markets expertise to CNBC's Business Day programming, with a regular appearance on CNBC's “Closing Bell (M-F, 3PM-5PM ET).   In addition, he contributes to CNBCand CNBC PRO, writing regular articles and creating original digital videos.

Previously, Santoli was a Senior Columnist at Yahoo Finance, where he wrote analysis and commentary on the stock market, corporate news and the economy. He also appeared on Yahoo Finance video programs, where he offered insights on the most important business stories of the day, and was a regular contributor to CNBC and other networks.

Follow Michael Santoli on Twitter @michaelsantoli

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