Analysts say the partial U.S.-China trade deal doesn't touch on thorny issues plaguing both sides, and warn talks could break down again.World Economyread more
Economists polled by Reuters had expected Chinese exports denominated in the U.S. dollar to fall by 3% and imports to decline by 5.2% in September, compared to a year ago.China Economyread more
The U.S. had plans to hike duties on at least $250 billion in Chinese goods to 30% from 25% on Tuesday. Despite the partial trade deal, some banks on Sunday wrote that tariff...Marketsread more
The industry has pulled in $322 billion over the past six months, the fastest pace since the second half of 2008.Marketsread more
A technical recession occurs when there are two consecutive quarters of economic contraction.Asia Economyread more
"Deepfakes" are being used to depict people in fake videos they did not actually appear in, and can potentially affect elections, diplomacy and how markets move, experts say.Technologyread more
Chinese President Xi Jinping warned on Sunday that any attempt to divide China will be crushed.China Politicsread more
Syria's Kurds said Syrian government forces agreed Sunday to help them fend off Turkey's invasion.World Newsread more
U.S. President Donald Trump said that both sides reached a "very substantial phase one deal" that will address intellectual property and financial services concerns and...Asia Marketsread more
Hagibis dropped record amounts of rain for a period in some spots, according to meteorological officials, causing more than 20 rivers to overflow.Asia Newsread more
A spokesperson for the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) has issued a stark warning to the international community.World Newsread more
Doug Ramsey, chief investment officer of the boutique Leuthold Group, on CNBC Wednesday laid out a series of worst case scenarios for stocks, including a "broad and deep revaluation" of the market during the next recession.
Ramsey said he sees a U.S. economic recession in the next two years that could wipe out all the stock market gains of Donald Trump's presidency. The , as of Tuesday's close, was up 28 percent since Election Day on Nov. 8, 2016.
During the past three recessions, the S&P 500 lost about 37 percent from December 2007 to June 2009; lost about 2 percent from March 2001 to November 2001; and actually gained 5 percent from July 1990 to March 1991.
Over the next year, Ramsey believes the S&P 500 could "undercut" last year's closing low of 2,351 on Christmas Eve, which capped off a volatile year and a dismal final three months of 2018.
"I think it's going to be scary over the next couple of months," Ramsey said in a "Squawk Box" interview, a day after the S&P 500 surged nearly 1.3 percent to 2,744 for its third straight positive session. The index, however, remained about 6.8 percent below its all-time closing high of 2,930 back in September — even with the 16.7 percent gain since Dec. 24.
Ramsey, in making his case, reiterated a couple valuation comparisons he made in mid-December. He said a markdown to the same price-to-earnings ratio seen at the October 2007 top would send the S&P 500 to 2,250, about 18 percent below Tuesday's close. The same comparison but using price-to-sales would sent the index to 2,050, about 25 percent lower.
Investors might want to consider bonds rather of stocks, Ramsey suggested.
Yields on 2-year, 5-year, and 10-year Treasurys are all "below levels they hit at the Christmas-Eve lows" in the stock market, he said. "You could be back to having a 1-handle on the yields I just mentioned — 2s, 5s, and 10s. I don't think it's a bad place to park money right now; away from stocks and into the intermediate part of the Treasury curve." A 1-handle means a number below 2 percent.
Many Wall Street strategists are cautious after stocks touched a bear market — down 20 percent or more from their recent highs — at the lowest levels of 2018. But there's certainty debate on whether the market will re-test those lows.
In fact, Tom Lee, co-founder of Fundstrat Global Advisors and former J.P. Morgan chief equity strategist, told CNBC last month that he believes the Christmas Eve low could very well be a generational bottom. "I think 2,350, for a lot of reasons, is the low that people have to treat like 2009. I think what happened last year is a lot like 2008. And this year may play out a lot like 2009," he said on Jan. 31.
For all of 2009, the S&P 500 gained nearly 26.5 percent after hitting a financial crisis closing low of 676 on March 9 of that year.