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No wonder the 2017 Republican tax cut remains so unpopular — the vast majority of Americans don't think they got one at all.
As the annual IRS filing deadline of April 15 approaches, just 17% believe their own taxes will go down, the NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll found. By contrast, 28% believe they'll pay more, 27% expect to pay about the same and 28% don't know enough to say.
That helps explain why the tax cut provided so little ballast for the GOP as Democrats recaptured control of the House in November's midterm elections. Pew Research polling last month found that the tax cut remains underwater politically, with 36% of Americans expressing approval and 49% disapproval.
In reality, 8 in 10 Americans stood to receive tax cuts in 2018 under the law, according to an analysis by the nonpartisan Tax Policy Center. Yet the cuts for most taxpayers are so small that many didn't notice.
The lowest earning 60% of households stood to receive an average cut of less than $1,000, the analysis found. The top 1% of taxpayers could expect more than $51,000.
In the NBC/WSJ poll, that sense of missing out is nonpartisan. Just 33% of Republicans believe they're getting a tax cut, while an even punier 10% of independents and 7% of Democrats do.
Across ages, genders, income groups, regions of the country, and races, 25% or fewer say they're getting a tax cut. Republicans are the only group in which 30% or more believe they're getting a tax cut.
Among core Trump supporters, 36% believe they're getting a tax cut. But another 36% say their taxes are staying the same, while 6% say they're paying more to the IRS.
The NBC/WSJ poll of 1,000 adults was conducted by telephone from March 23-27. It carries a margin for error of 3.1 percentage points.