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WHEN: Today, Tuesday, May 7, 2019
WHERE: CNBC's "Fast Money Halftime Report "
The following are excerpts from the unofficial transcript from of a CNBC EXCLUSIVE interview with DoubleLine CEO Jeffrey Gundlach and CNBC's Scott Wapner on CNBC's "Fast Money Halftime Report" (M-F 12PM – 1PM) today, Tuesday, May 7th. The following are links to video from the interview on CNBC.com: https://www.cnbc.com/video/2019/05/07/doubleline-ceo-gundlach-national-debt-is-totally-out-of-control.html & https://www.cnbc.com/video/2019/05/07/bond-king-gundlach-better-than-50-percent-chance-of-tariff-bump-happening.html.
All references must be sourced to CNBC.
Jeffrey Gundlach on China trade:
I think that you've got an irresistible force meeting an immovable object, where both the Premier of China and the President of the United States. want to come across that they prevailed and didn't give in, which means to me I think we're going to keep seeing more tension and I think the 25 percent tariff bump is better than 50 percent chance.
Jeffrey Gundlach on the Markets:
The market hasn't gone anywhere in 15 months. You know, people keep acting like this is some locomotive that's chugging along. But the New York Stock Exchange Composite Index, which to me is the most important one since it's the biggest, it peaked in Jan 2018 and then it couldn't quite make it back to that peak in October, and now it couldn't quite back to that October level and now it's rolling over again.
Jeffrey Gundlach on the Fed policy pivots:
You know, you think about where we are now vs. October, and just about everything is about where it was or lower. So I think this has been a process of trying to digest, you know, Fed policy pivots which have created a lot of volatility and then the fact that the global economy has slowed down in a very major way since the really peak period of late '17 early '18
Jeffrey Gundlach on the National Debt:
The deficit and the national debt are totally out of control. Last year, 2018, the national debt—forget about the deficit, which isn't really the amount of true borrowing – the national debt increased by over 6 percent of GDP in 2018. Nominal GDP rose by 5.1 So, if we're growing debt so much during a 5 percent nominal GDP period and you ticked off some economic facts are reasonably reassuring, what's going to happen when we turn down?
Jeffrey Gundlach on the Economy:
The economy is in such bad shape to withstand a downturn. Again, the national debt is exploding while we're having some of the best GDP year-over-year that we've had in recent years. Right? So the economy is not in any kind of condition for the government to come to the rescue other than really wickedly extraordinary policies a la the ECB and the BOJ.
Jeffrey Gundlach on the Bear Market:
People talk about this 20 percent thing, and I mean, I'm ok with that if people want to go there in a conversation. But a bear market is really about cycles and manias, and then things one-by-one rolling over and the market getting narrower and narrower. And I think all of that has been happening in about an 18-month time period.
Jeffrey Gundlach on the Jay Powell:
Well, frankly, Jay Powell's most recent press conference looked lost to me. Or maybe the right word is scared. Scared to say anything. So, we're kind of rudderless now I think in terms of the Fed. They just want things to be okay and to hold together and they don't want to say anything or change their rhetoric or scare anybody.
Jeffrey Gundlach on if it's a Bull Market:
The stock market has gone nowhere in the United States in 15 months and it's down in many part of the world. So, I don't know --- I'm going to flip the question. If anybody wants to say how can I say it's a bear market, how can I say it's a bull market? I mean it's been a good year to date, yes I agree. But to characterize the last 15 months as a bull market is just wrong.
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