Market Insider

These charts show Trump's trade war could hit his base of voters most

Key Points
  • States that stand to feel the most pain from Trump's tariffs happen to be mostly states that supported him in the presidential election.
  • Trump's tariffs hit Louisiana the hardest, and that state is also the largest exporter of soy beans, according to charts provided by Deutsche Bank Securities.
President Donald Trump hosts the "National Day of Prayer" Service in the Rose Garden at the White House in Washington, May 2, 2019.
Kevin Lamarque | Reuters

President Donald Trump's tariffs hit his voters the hardest, with the top three states most affected by the trade war, all places that helped him win the White House.

Charts compiled by Torsten Slok, chief economist at Deutsche Bank Securities, show Louisiana is the state most hurt by the tariffs, followed by Alaska and South Carolina. Of the top 10 states most affected by tariffs, all but two of them, Washington and Oregon, voted for Trump in the last election.

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It's not surprising that Louisiana tops the list, since it is a large U.S. producer of soybeans and also the top exporter of soybeans. China chose to strike back at the U.S. by going after the crop. On Thursday, futures fell to the lowest price since December, 2008.

Chinese imports of U.S. soybeans fell sharply in the second half of last year, and then flat lined until picking up in January and February, as trade talks progressed. Purchases by Mexico and the European Union surpassed those of China during the second half of 2018. Even Canada became a larger importer of soy beans at the end of last year.

Other major producers of soybeans include Ohio, Indiana, North Dakota and Michigan, all states that voted for the president. Illinois, also a major producer, did not vote for Trump.

Among the biggest exporters of the crop are Ohio, Illinois, and Iowa but Louisiana is much larger. Washington state was the second largest exporter, but it is a blue state.

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Correction: President Donald Trump did not win Illinois in the 2016 election. An earlier version mischaracterized the state's 2016 results.