Art Hogan is more worried about the U.S.-China trade war than whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates.
Hogan, National Securities' chief market strategist, believes the Fed made the right decision Wednesday to communicate openness to cutting rates at its next meetings.
But Hogan warns that won't be enough to stymie a market drop from trade war fallout.
"We're back at a point where it's really trade policy that's driving everything," he told CNBC's "Trading Nation " on Wednesday. "If we're able to accomplish a deal with China on trade before the end of this year, the Fed may not have to lower rates at all."
Hogan, who pushed the pause button on his bullish market stance in January, contends pinning hopes of a sustainable S&P 500 rally on an accommodative Fed is the wrong place to be.
"They don't have enough negative economic data in the here and now to be cutting rates. If they were to cut in July, let's say, that would still be an insurance cut," said Hogan. "I just don't think they have enough ammunition in their back pocket to be wasting any right now."
His year-end price target is 2,900, an almost 1 percent decline from current levels. He believes June's robust gains, which are putting the index within striking distance of all-time highs, are vulnerable.
He predicts the S&P could fall flat by next week's G-20 summit if President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping fail to get closer to a trade deal.
"It's driving our impression of what the market should look like, our estimates for earnings in the back half of this year and for 2020 and certainly what we think monetary policy will look like," Hogan said. "That's not the place we really should be. I think the sooner we put trade policy in the rearview mirror, the better off the market is going to be."