— This is the script of CNBC's news report for China's CCTV on July 15, 2019, Monday.
Throughout the first half of this year, if we sum it up by a phrase from the international monetary fund, then that is "slowing growth, wary recovery". Official data of many economies in the first half of the year have not been officially released, but let's have a look from the report released by IMF first.
It can be seen that in the first half of this year, the world economy, no matter developed economies, emerging markets and developing economies, has continued its momentum of recovery, but its growth has slowed down significantly.
In the first half of this year, more and more major economies showed signs of sluggish growth
GDP growth in the US was revised to 3.1% in the first quarter and is expected to slow to around 1% to 2% in the second quarter. The Eurozone has been even weaker, year-on-year growth in the 19 countries was only 1.2% in the first quarter and is expected to slow further in the second quarter, in Asia, Japan's first-quarter growth rate was revised up to 2.2 per cent. In addition, data from some economies are even more alarming, such as Singapore's official forecast released on Friday that growth in the second quarter of this year is likely to be just 0.1 per cent, the lowest in a decade.
Let's look at the main indicators of global economic activity.
In the first half of this year, the world's industrial output, international trade, and manufacturing PMI all showed a significant downward trend. Among them, it is particularly noteworthy that the narrowing of international trade volume is very obvious. This is mainly due to the US-led trade protectionism policy.
Since 2018, the average tariff of all G20 members has increased, among which, the new tariff of the United States in 2019 and the scale of the proposed tariff increase are very notable
In addition to international trade tensions, the first half of this year was also dragged down by geopolitical fluctuations, especially in the end of the second quarter of this year, the tension in the Middle East also posed a constraint on world economic development. International institutions predict that the world economy will stabilize somewhat in the second half of the year and regain momentum after slowing in the first half. But there are still three difficulties. First, trade.
Trade relations between the United States and China appear to be easing, but trade frictions between the U.S. and Europe are adding some uncertainty. Second, macro policies are also very limited. Recently, many central Banks have cut interest rates or released easing signals. However, the interest rates in many economies are already at historical lows, so the scope for further reduction is limited
Among all the uncertainties that the global economy facing now,
The United States trade policy uncertainty is still the most dominant factor
This is what the world economy needs to focus on in the second half of the year