Trading Nation

This Dow trade-war victim could fall another 18%, technical analyst warns

Intel most vulnerable to China trade, says strategist

Trade fears, slumping global rates, and uncertainty over the Fed have sent the Dow tumbling to begin the month.

Since the beginning of August, the blue-chip index has shed more than 800 points, dragged on by steep losses in Caterpillar, Intel, JPMorgan, Apple, Goldman Sachs and 3M.

It could get even worse for 3M, says JC O'Hara, chief market technician at MKM Partners.

Its technical setup is flashing a warning sign, O'Hara told "Trading Nation" in an email Wednesday. He said the stock has cut underneath its 200-week moving average and could break support at $160. If it breaks through there, it will not find another level of support until $135, he warns. That marks 18% downside.

The industrials company generates 60% of its revenue from outside of the U.S., a third of which is sourced from the Asia Pacific region. It has plummeted more than 6% this month.

Boris Schlossberg, managing director of FX strategy at BK Asset Management, is more concerned with Intel's prospects.

"While Caterpillar and 3M are poster children for the global slowdown and all the problems with China trade, I think Intel is the most vulnerable," Schlossberg said on CNBC's "Trading Nation" on Wednesday. "Its own organic business is being threatened by all sides. AMD is really hurting it in the cloud. It's really unable to do anything in mobile, and the margins are really compressing."

Intel's gross margins have been squeezed in recent years. Last year, the tech company posted a 61.5% gross margin, down from 65% in 2010 — however, that is higher than competitor AMD's gross margin of 38%.

AMD has crushed Intel in terms of stock performance, though. While Intel is slightly lower for the year, AMD has soared nearly 60%.

"Think of this a case of kicking the guy while he's down. Intel is the one that's going to be short in any kind of a slowdown going forward," he said.