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— This is the script of CNBC's news report for China's CCTV on September 9, 2019, Monday.
Some worry that the bull market is going to end as the mascot on Wall Street was vandalized. Indeed, the U.S. stock market has been on a bull run for more than a decade, talk of the end of the bull market is also heating up after the recent correction, but in terms of current complicated situation, Wall Street is also deeply divided over the next direction of U.S. stock market. S&P 500 could go from a 5% decline to an 11% gain by the end of the year, according to data that CNBC tracked from 17 top analysis institutions.
Deutche Bank has the brightest prospect, its target is 3250, Barclays and JP Morgan with the worst performance, both of their targets is 2750.
A continuous booming in U.S. stock market is not only related to general election, but also in touch with the development of U.S. economy. Greenspan, former fed chairman, told CNBC last week that the stock market's performance will determine whether the U.S. economy will actually fall into recession.
There are some recession warning signals though, Jerome Powell, current chairman of the fed holds an optimistic view to U.S. economy, in the public speech last Friday, he reiterated some risks about the uncertainty in trade policy etc., generally, he believes " recession" is not in the fed's expectation.
Jerome Powell，Chair of the Federal Reserve
"Our main expectation is not at all that it will be a recession."
"The most likely outlook for our economy remains a favorable one, with moderate growth, a strong labor market, and inflation moving back up close to our 2 per cent goal."
The next FOMC Meeting is on Sep 17 and 18, at that time, the fed will probably take further actions of rate cuts to support the U.S. economy. ECB will release its rate decision in advance on this Thursday before the fed does that, now the market widely expects the fed will cut rates and announce more stimulus measures.
In Europe, the further development of the Brexit is undoubtedly the top priority for the market; whether Boris Johnson will bounce back or find a compromise after a series of heavy hits will be the biggest focus in European markets this week and that is also important for EU stock market. In crude market, Ministerial meetings of OPEC and non-OPEC producers will be held this Thursday.
UAE energy minister Maazroui said on Sunday that he doesn't suggest another round of cut but to achieve a balance in the market under current trade situation.
On company front, Apple's product unveiling on Sep 10 draws attention all over the world.
The market concerns whether its innovation would help iPhone get out of its dilemma in sales. Additionally, more Saudi Aramco's IPO details have been released after it announced an important personnel change last week. JP Morgan is closed to win as the chief advisor of this IPO, according to source.
It is expected that more details will be released this week; we will keep an eye on that.