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Oil price jump won't hit US consumer spending, market bull Tony Dwyer predicts

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Fears over the oil price jump are overdone, market bull Tony Dwyer says

Wall Street bull Tony Dwyer expects consumer spending to withstand oil's dramatic price spike following the  unprecedented attack on Saudi Arabia's crude production.

He contends it's because Americans are spending less than ever on their fuel needs.

Dwyer makes his case in this chart.

"Total energy spending is less than 4 percent of disposable personal income," the Canaccord Genuity chief market strategist told CNBC's "Trading Nation" on Monday. "In the peak around the early 1980s, it was closer to 8, 9%. Even at the end of 2008, it was closer to 6½-7%."

A drone strike on Saturday knocked out half of Saudi's oil production or 5% of global output. Brent crude prices, the international benchmark, soared as much as 19.5% following the attack, its biggest jump on record.

West Texas Intermediate crude saw a similar move, rising $8.05 a barrel Monday to close at $62.90 a barrel.

In a note Monday, Dwyer said: "WTI spent most of the current quarter below the level 2Q/19 level, and Disposable Income has been moving higher, suggesting that — despite this uptick due to the drone attack in Saudi Arabia — the cost of Energy is likely less as a percent of income than the most recent quarter."

Dwyer is so confident that spending will weather the oil price jump that he says consumer discretionary remains one of his favorite S&P 500 groups.

"We're really near a historic low on what the energy cost, even on an uptick, is relative to incomes," Dwyer said.

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Oil price jump won't hit consumer spending, market bull Tony Dwyer predicts