— This is the script of CNBC's news report for China's CCTV on October 2, 2019, Wednesday.
U.S. stock market underperformance at the 1st trading day of Q4, with 3 major indexes closed down, among that DJIA lost more than 340 points as a report with negative attitudes made the market worried. Institute for Supply Management announced on Tuesday that U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers' index
came in at 47.8% in September from the 49.15 in August, the lowest since June 2009.
Generally, this figure below 50% signals a contraction. Till now, U.S. manufacturing has in the second consecutive month of contraction.
Specifically, U.S. manufacturing experienced decline at many aspects in Sep, the new export orders index was only 41%, the lowest level since March 2009, down from the August reading of 43.3. this report reflects that trade friction drags down the U.S. manufacturing, ISM president also said in a note that global trade remains the most significant issue to U.S. manufacturing. And the ISM employment gauge for the sector showed the lowest reading, primarily driven by a lack of demand, some analysts worry there is no end in sight to this slowdown, the recession risk is real.
We've known that manufacturing was once considered a big winner under the Trump administration with improvements in employment and activity over the past few years. So Trump was unsatisfied with this latest released report. earlier, according to CNCB's report,
Trump's approval rating has dropped to the history low since he took office, with 37%, and more people disapprove his approaches to handle economy issues.
After ISM's report released, Trump blamed the monetary policy of the fed first, tweeted that the Federal Reserve "allowed the Dollar to get so strong ... that our manufacturers are being negatively affected. Fed Rate too high." After that, market expectations for another rate cut by the fed this year have also risen sharply.
The probability of another rates cut by the end of Oct is close to 65%, according to CME'S related trade numbers.
Markets will put more attention on the coming Sino-U.S. trade talk, apart from the Fed's monetary policy, hoping this talk will release more positive signals. We will keep an eye on this issue.
Clarification: This report has been updated to reflect that the script was for October 2, 2019, Wednesday.