Here's what every major analyst is expecting from Tesla earnings after the bell

Published Wed, Oct 23 201910:25 AM EDT

Wall Street analysts will be watching Tesla closely for the second time this month when the company releases its earnings report on Wednesday after the bell. Many analysts remain conflicted heading into the report and are hoping Tesla's record delivery report from earlier this month will continue to propel the company forward. Analysts will looking for signs of profit, vehicle demand, progress on the China factory, Model Y updates, and an outlook into Q4. Shares of the company are up over 4% this month. Here's what the major analysts expect from Tesla's earnings report: "We think results could surprise to the upside, though there are several variables, including leasing and Service/Energy margins, which could hinder near term profitability," Baird analyst Ben Kallo said. "We remain buyers ahead of the Q3 report," he said. However, much can already be gleaned about this quarter based on recent information and it's probably not that different from the past according to analysts at JMP Securities. "As always, unit data for the quarter are already in the public domain, and we are able to draw a couple of conclusions about the quarter's financial performance from the unit numbers," analyst Joe Osha said. "The most important of those conclusions is that we don't expect any major changes from last quarter – our revenue estimate is almost exactly flat sequentially," he said. One analyst all but admitted it was hard to figure out how the report would turn out but was staying upbeat and said China would be key. "While we are toning down the optimism that was reflected in our original near-term estimates, we are maintaining our bullishness on TSLA overall," analysts at Piper Jaffray said. "As always, accurately predicting quarterly results will remain a challenge for the next few quarters, particularly because it's difficult to pinpoint the exact timing of Tesla's new facility in China - not to mention the launch timing for the Model Y crossover." Baird - Outperform rating "We think results could surprise to the upside (there is an outside shot the company achieves GAAP profitability, in our view), though there are several variables, including leasing and Service/Energy margins, which could hinder near term profitability. 2019 volume guidance will likely also be a focus as the market looks to bridge Q4; we think tightening guidance lower would remove an overhang on the stock. We remain buyers ahead of the Q3 report." Oppenheimer- Outperform rating "We continue to believe the 3Q19 delivery number was strong relative to expectations and positions TSLA to beat GM estimates should it deliver on some of the manufacturing efficiencies it has been working on. We believe GM may also benefit from higher mix of Model 3 sales in the EU. We believe emission credit monetization could also boost earnings this quarter and are an under-appreciated cash flow driver in Europe beginning in January when new emissions standards are implemented. We believe each EV sold in Europe will have a credit value of ~$9,500/vehicle." Jefferies- Buy rating "Quarterly results could be challenging, as often, but we expect Tesla to show progress on industrial margin, Shanghai ramp-up and future products. Competitors' launches continue to underline Tesla's product edge in our view, especially at the Model 3 price point. As electrification accelerates, Tesla is the only OEM under coverage engaged in a positive sum game of growth and earnings. In this note we review Q3 expectations and update 2020 for FCA credits." J.P. Morgan - Underweight rating "Our December 2020 price target of $200 is unchanged, and we remain cautious on shares of Underweight-rated TSLA, on lofty valuation coupled with high investor expectations, high execution risk, and the potential for a pending cut to full-year delivery guidance at the time of 3Q earnings." Credit Suisse - Underperform rating "We believe the 3Q delivery release + the forthcoming 3Q result may provide negative datapoints on both fronts – Tesla is likely to post its first y/y negative revenue growth quarter since 2012, and we expect gross margins down modestly sequentially. While we await where 'the bar' is set on key items into the print, our revised 3Q non-GAAP EPS estimate of - 42c is below cons. -26c, and we are negatively biased on Tesla stock into the 3Q print. " Piper Jaffray- Overweight rating "While we are toning down the optimism that was reflected in our original near-term estimates, we are maintaining our bullishness on TSLA overall. As always, accurately predicting quarterly results will remain a challenge for the next few quarters, particularly because it's difficult to pinpoint the exact timing of Tesla's new facility in China - not to mention the launch timing for the Model Y crossover. While these initiatives create modeling headaches, we think they will position Tesla favorably in the medium- to long-term; in this context, we see no reason to question our favorable rating on the stock." JMP Securities- Market perform rating "In our view, attention should be focused on Tesla's unit outlook for the fourth quarter when the company reports third-quarter results this Wednesday. As always, unit data for the quarter are already in the public domain, and we are able to draw a couple of conclusions about the quarter's financial performance from the unit numbers. The most important of those conclusions is that we don't expect any major changes from last quarter – our revenue estimate is almost exactly flat sequentially."

Tesla CEO Elon Musk reacts during a conversation at the E3 gaming convention in Los Angeles, June 13, 2019.

Mike Blake | Reuters

Analysts will looking for signs of profit, vehicle demand, progress on the China factory, Model Y updates, and an outlook into Q4.

Shares of the company are up over 4% this month.

Here's what the major analysts expect from Tesla's earnings report: