Tesla is poised to deliver Model Y crossover in first quarter of 2020, says Deutsche Bank

Key Points
  • A new research note from Deutsche Bank estimates that Tesla will start deliveries of their crossover SUV, the Model Y, in the first quarter of 2020.
  • Elon Musk unveiled the Model Y in March 2019, with plans for deliveries to begin in the fall of 2020 at that time.
  • Suppliers to Tesla told a Taiwan-based newspaper that Tesla had accelerated parts orders for the Model Y and the company's forthcoming commercial truck, the Semi.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk views the new Tesla Model Y at its unveiling in Hawthorne, California on March 14, 2019.
Frederic J. Brown | AFP | Getty Images

Tesla is poised to start deliveries of its crossover SUV, the Model Y, in the first quarter of 2020, according to research out Tuesday from Deutsche Bank.

If Tesla could begin Model Y deliveries in the first-quarter of 2020, that would be a full season ahead of CEO Elon Musk's promised schedule. Early production and deliveries would be a symbolic win for the company, which has often failed to meet self-imposed delivery deadlines.

On its third-quarter earnings call, Musk told shareholders:

"We're also ahead of schedule on Model Y preparations in Fremont, and we've moved the launch timeline from full 2020 to summer 2020. There may be some room for improvement there, but we're confident about summer 2020." He added, "I've actually recently driven the Model Y release candidate and think it's going to be an amazing product and be very well received. I think it's quite likely to -- just my opinion, but I think it will outsell Model S, Model X and Model 3 combined."

"Tesla is a must-own stock," Piper Jaffray says
"Tesla is a must-own stock," Piper Jaffray says

However, he declined to share further details, like how many pre-orders had come in for the Model Y, or whether or not operations at the company's battery plant outside of Reno, Nevada, were also on track enable the earlier launch.

On Tuesday, analysts at Deutsche Bank cited reports from Tesla suppliers in Taiwan who told a newspaper there they experienced "accelerating orders" for parts that would go into the Model Y, as well as Tesla's forthcoming commercial truck, the Semi.

Deutsche Bank's Senior Autos & Auto Technology Analyst, Emmanuel Rosner, wrote:

"Reports from suppliers of Model Y parts in Taiwan are claiming that Tesla is requesting that their orders be delivered much earlier than expected... The Taiwanese suppliers are now indicating that the Tesla is accelerating orders to enter mass production a full six months ahead of the original schedule. This would mean that the Model Y could be available to the public in the first quarter of next year. The suppliers additionally claimed that Tesla Semi part orders are being accelerated as well, with the truck set to be released in limited quantity sometime next year."

Musk has promised or is taking pre-orders and deposits for more products than Tesla is able to produce at scale currently, including the Model Y, Semi, the recently unveiled Cybertruck, Solarglass rooftops, an all-electric ATV, and full-self driving software.

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