Markets

Peter Navarro sees 'at least' Dow 32,000 in 2020 and US economic growth closer to 3% next year

Key Points
  • White House trade advisor Peter Navarro predicted a more than 12% increase for the Dow next year.
  • With one day left in 2019, the Dow was up 22% for this year.
  • Navarro also said, "Forecast-wise, I'm seeing closer to 3% real GDP growth than 2%."
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Watch CNBC's full interview with Peter Navarro

White House trade advisor Peter Navarro on Tuesday predicted the Dow Jones Industrial Average will hit "at least" 32,000 in 2020. That would be 12.4% higher than Monday's close.

"I'm looking forward to a great 2020," Navarro told CNBC's "Squawk Box." "Forecast-wise, I'm seeing closer to 3% real GDP growth than 2%. I'm seeing at least 32,000 on the Dow."

In the third quarter, U.S. economic growth increased at a 2.1% annual rate.

The Dow, which declined and closed Monday at 28,462, was up more than 55% since President Donald Trump won the 2016 election. Despite Monday's drop, the Dow was still near record highs.

"It's going to be the roaring 2020s next year," Navarro said. "[Dow] 32,000 is a conservative estimate of where we'll be at the end of the year."

Trump is running his 2020 reelection campaign on his stock market and economic track record.

Navarro pointed to a handful of signs of a stronger economy ahead, despite concerns of a slowdown, including low unemployment, rising consumer optimism and rising wages.

Additionally, he cited ongoing trade progress.

The "phase one" trade deal between the U.S. and China is a certainty at this point, Navarro said, adding the accord is "in the bank."

He also alluded to potential trade priorities for the Trump administration in 2020, including a new deal with a post-Brexit United Kingdom and other countries.

"Next year, 2020, we're going to try to get something going with Great Britain, Vietnam, Europe and anybody else who wants to fairly trade with the United States of America," Navarro said.

Navarro has long believed that the Dow would be on a tear with Trump in the White House.

On "Squawk Box" the morning after Trump was elected in November 2016, Navarro said it was "a very bullish thing for the markets" and predicted Dow 25,000 during the Trump presidency, a 38% increase from then-current levels around 18,000.

With one day left in 2019, the Dow was up 22% for this year alone. The S&P 500 broader market measure is tracking for its best year since 2013, with a 28.5% advance for 2019 as of Monday's close.

Looking at the S&P 500's performance during recent administrations' first three years since Election Day, Trump leads the way with gains of more than 50%. George H.W. Bush saw a nearly 48% increase, Bill Clinton saw a 45% advance, Barack Obama saw a nearly 31% rise, Ronald Reagan saw more than 26% gains and George W. Bush saw a more than 23% drop.