After the Dow suffers such a bad first quarter, here's what typically happens the rest of the year

Published Tue, Mar 31 20202:32 PM EDTUpdated Tue, Mar 31 20204:23 PM EDT

The Dow Jones Industrial Average just posted its worst first quarter on record after the coronavirus pandemic sparked a historic sell-off. Drawing on past dismal first quarters, here's what can happen next. CNBC looked at the worst 15 first quarters in history for the 30-stock benchmark, to get an idea of how markets fare the rest of the year after a brutal first three months. The Dow lost more than 23% of its value in the first three months of 2020. On average, the Dow managed to pare most of the first-quarter losses during the remainder of the full year. However, the blue-chip average tends to still finish the year in the red, with a median annual loss of 3.5%, according to CNBC's analysis. The coronavirus is an unprecedented economic shock and at this point no one is sure how long it will keep the economy at a standstill. Still, the market is already matching the pattern of past first-quarter shocks with the S & P 500 well off its lows heading into the end of the quarter. The historical tend would argue that stocks can make back a large part of the losses as the economy restarts in the second half. That would match what most strategists are expecting at this point. The consensus year-end forecast for the S & P 500 sits at 3,038, representing a 17% gain from current levels and a 6% loss for 2020, according to the CNBC Market Strategist Survey that rounds up 16 top strategists' forecasts. There are some exceptions to this trend, like in 2008 when the financial crisis put the whole banking system at risk. But most strategists don't see that occurring here. Many are calling for a "V" shaped recovery this year as stocks exit the fastest bear market ever by the year-end. JPMorgan maintained its year-end target of 3,400 on the S & P 500, which would translate into a 5% gain on the year. Deutsche Bank, CFRA, BTIG and UBS are still predicting an up year for stocks despite the monster first quarter sell-off. Meanwhile, Tom Lee, Fundstrat's head of research, sees the S & P 500 recovering half of its losses as soon as next month and eking out a 6% gain this year. "We could see stocks in a seriously strong recovery by summer. And perhaps even all-time highs by year-end," Lee said in a note. To be sure, it's particularly hard to predict what happens next for the market during an unprecedented time with a government mandated shutdown of the economy. Several Wall Street analysts even threw in the towel on giving the S & P 500 targets due to the unparalleled uncertainty. But Lee and others are giving it their best shot and a history of first-quarter shocks seem to fit with what the bullish strategists are predicting. "Taking into account the unprecedented monetary and fiscal measures being implemented, as well as unprecedented asset declines over the past month, we maintain that asset price recovery is likely," Marko Kolanovic, global head of quantitative and derivatives strategy at JPMorgan, said in a note last week. — CNBC's Nate Rattner and Michael Bloom contributed reporting.

A passenger wears a protective mask at the Wall Street subway station in New York, on Monday, March 30, 2020.

Michael Nagle | Bloomberg via Getty Images

CNBC looked at the worst 15 first quarters in history for the 30-stock benchmark, to get an idea of how markets fare the rest of the year after a brutal first three months.