— This is the script of CNBC's news report for China's CCTV on May 18, 2020, Monday.
Powell said in the latest interview signal can be said to be very cautious optimism, he said on the one hand, if there is no second wave, then the second half of this year, the U.S. economy will begin to rebound, but on the other hand also points out that the U.S. economy full recovery may be slow, may have to wait until the end of next year.
He also believes that American can fully restore confidence till the vaccine produced. In the latest reply regarding vaccine, Trump thinks the U.S. economy will recover whether there is vaccine or not.
"It's very important， vaccine or no vaccine, we're back.
For vaccine, this key factor, 2 major leaders in Europe, Italy president Conte and British PM Boris Johnson both warned that the vaccine may not come out early and said frankly that they should adapt to the virus, not to rely on vaccine.
That means the U.S. economy and the world economy could face a long period of uncertainty. In his latest interview, Powell still tried to send some positive signals.
Arguing that unlike the great depression of the 1930s, the recovery would not last long, and investors shouldn't short the U.S. in the medium to long term. U.S. stock futures rose slightly after Powell's remarks. Still, some scholars say Powell's remarks may have been over-optimistic, suggesting that the actual damage to the U.S. economy will be more severe.
JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY
PROF OF APPLIED ECONOMICS
the sledgehammer did a lot of damage，and I think , POWELL, we say diplomatic in his remarks, but in cautious, but I think the damage is probably more severe than Powell let on. we really have never experienced anything like this. So it's very hard to know what's going to happen.
The Atlanta fed's tracking data forecast that U.S. GDP would fall by 42.8% in the second quarter of this year, a further deterioration from its previous forecast of 34.9%. Goldman Sachs now expects US GDP to fall by 39% in the second quarter.
Against that backdrop, Wall Street investors are warning that the U.S. stock market may still be overvalued, undervaluing the loss of the shutdown.
In particular, a growing number of bankruptcies have weighed on U.S. stocks. And until there is more evidence to show that US will restore economy.
US stock market may stay in a range for some time before it gains further upward momentum. We will keep an eye on issue.