Latest CNBC/Change Research Poll Shows Democratic Joe Biden Ahead in Battleground States; Battleground States See Increase in Concern about Re-Opening
ENGLEWOOD CLIFFS, N.J., June 17, 2020 – CNBC and Change Research today announced the results of their latest joint "States of Play" poll, conducted June 12th – June 14th.
For the first time since the CNBC and Change Research "States of Play" poll's inception in March 2020, the results show Democratic nominee Joe Biden taking a lead over President Donald Trump in the six major battleground states (Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.) Nationally, he leads by ten-points (a two-point gain since the last poll taken two weeks ago) and in those six major battleground states, he leads by three-points (three points higher than two weeks ago.)
Meanwhile, a 54% majority of voters in battleground states agree with the statement: "Donald Trump is pushing states to reopen their economies too quickly in order to boost his own re-election chances." All of the six key battleground states saw an increase in voter-concern that their state has opened up too quickly, when compared to two weeks ago. The biggest increases were seen in Florida and Arizona, where roughly half of voters say their state is reopening too quickly.
CNBC and Change Research polled over 2,400 anticipated general election voters from the six previously noted battleground states, as well as over 1,250 anticipated general election voters nationally, to determine economic sentiment amongst voters. Additional key findings from the most recent CNBC/Change Research "States of Play" poll include:
· The biggest change in voter support among battleground state voters is in Pennsylvania, where the poll showed President Trump ahead by four points two weeks ago, and now shows Biden ahead by three points. Biden's biggest lead is currently in Florida, where he is ahead by seven points.
· President Trump's disapproval ratings are intensifying in battleground states.
o A little over half (53%) of voters disagree with the statement "Donald Trump has done enough to help working Americans make it through the current economic downturn." Those who strongly disagree outpaces those who strongly agree 44% to 29%.
o A 52% majority of voters in battleground states (56% nationally) say President Donald Trump's response to the killing of George Floyd and protests for criminal justice reform was "mostly harmful."
· Voters in battleground states remain seriously concerned about coronavirus (64%) and continue to be more worried about the impact of COVID-19 on their family's health and safety (66%) than the impact on their family's finances (34%.)
· A 59% majority of battleground voters say it is not safe to attend a protest. 56% say it is unsafe to attend a rally, 27% say it is safe to attend a large indoor sporting event, and 37% say it is safe to attend an outdoor sporting event.
o There is a notable partisan divide among those who believe attending a protest or sporting event is safe. For Republicans: 69% say they believe it is safe to attend a campaign rally, 39% say it is safe to attend a protest, 55% say it is safe to attend a large indoor sporting event, and 73% say it is safe to attend an outdoor sporting event.
· Battleground voters say 'Racism and Discrimination' is the third most important issue in the upcoming presidential election, just behind 'Health Care and Drug Costs', and 'Economy, Jobs and Cost of Living' and ahead of 'COVID-19,' which ranked fourth most important.
· While majorities say that people of color have the same economic opportunities as white people at their own workplace (59% in battleground states), and nearly half say that is true in their communities (48%), a 53% majority say that is not true in the nation as a whole.
o Within those results, the voter's racial identity plays a role in opinion. Black voters largely say they do not have the same opportunities in their workplace, their communities, or the country as a whole.
· A 71% majority of battleground voters have favorable opinions about peaceful protests.
· 61% of battleground state voters agree that "we should invest more in education, mental health, and social services and spend less on policing."
CNBC Washington D.C. Correspondents Eamon Javers and Kayla Tausche will reveal the results of the CNBC/Change Research "States of Play Poll" today, Wednesday, June 17th throughout CNBC's Business Day programming. CNBC Washington D.C. Reporter Ylan Mui will additionally cover on-air this Friday, June 19th.
For more information on the survey including the full results and methodology and in-depth articles, go to: https://www.changeresearch.com/post/states-of-play-battleground-wave-7.
Between June 14-16, 2020, Change Research surveyed 1,250 likely general election voters nationally and 2,408 likely general election voters in the battleground states of Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The margin of error as traditionally calculated among the national sample is ±2.77% and among the battleground sample is ±2.00%. Change Research reaches voters via targeted online ads that point people to an online survey instrument. Its Dynamic Online Sampling establishes and continuously rebalances advertising targets across region, age, gender, race, and partisanship to dynamically deliver large samples that accurately reflect the demographics of a population. In the national survey and the survey of battleground states, post-stratification was done on gender, age, region, education, race, and 2016 presidential vote.
For additional methodological information, visit https://www.changeresearch.com/methodology-and-accuracy.
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Change Research provides fast, affordable, and accurate technology-based polling across the country. Since launching in July of 2017, Change Research has conducted over 1,000 polls for candidates, media, and causes at all levels and budgets, surveying nearly 2 million people.
Learn more at www.changeresearch.com and find some of our recent public poll results on Twitter @changepolls.