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Goldman thinks the market is underestimating the odds of a faster-than-expected coronavirus vaccine

Scientist Xinhua Yan works in the lab at Moderna in Cambridge, MA on Feb. 28, 2020. Moderna has developed the first experimental coronavirus medicine, but an approved treatment is more than a year away.
David L. Ryan | Boston Globe | Getty Images

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Markets underappreciate the rising odds of a Covid-19 vaccine and are failing to price in the better chances of an FDA-approved inoculation by the end of November, Goldman Sachs told clients.

Goldman cited revised projections from consulting firm Good Judgment, which in early June saw less than a 10% chance of a vaccine being "broadly available" by the end of March 2021, now it puts that chance at nearly 40%.

Goldman said Wednesday it agrees with those findings, telling clients "there is a good chance that at least one vaccine will be FDA-approved by the end of November and broadly distributed by the middle of 2021."

It also gave clients an options trade that would pay off with a faster-then-expected vaccine.

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