Evercore ISI adds Apple to 'tactical outperform' list as Wall Street gets bullish ahead of earnings

Published Mon, Oct 26 20208:24 AM EDTUpdated Mon, Oct 26 202010:53 AM EDT

(This story is for CNBC Pro subscribers only.) Apple reports earnings on Thursday and Wall Street is bullish on the stock despite uncertainty about sales guidance due to the delayed iPhone event. Evercore ISI added Apple's stock to its tactical outperform list ahead of the results, banking on a rally into the new year from strong iPhone sales. "AAPL stock should keep working higher driven by a trifecta of a) strong non iPhone demand, b) Services acceleration and c) iPhone super cycle," Evercore ISI analyst Amit Daryanani told clients. Shares of Apple are up nearly 60% in 2020; however the stock has slipped more than 7% since Apple's long-awaited iPhone launch earlier this month. Apple announced four new iPhone 12 models, all of which support new faster 5G networks. It also announced a new smart home speaker, called the HomePod Mini. Underperformance from Apple's stock is likely to be short-lived, based on historical data. Apple shares have outperformed the S & P 500 by an average of 13 percentage points in the six months following an iPhone launch event, according to data compiled by Morgan Stanley. Evercore told clients Apple earnings could be a catalyst for that outperformance, although the iPhone data will only be a few weeks old. "What we see driving the stock higher is a) Dec-quarter guide and commentary that shows iPhone 12 demand will stay STRONGER FOR LONGER, b) robust demand across hardware not related to iPhones and c) Services acceleration as the new iPhone with robust demand will drive uptick," said Daryanani. "For iPhones, we now see an attractively priced lineup of phones and strong US carrier promotions (more aggressive than 2018 and 2019) boding well for a strong Christmas season," Citi analyst Jim Suva said in a note to clients. Citi has a buy rating on Apple. Evercore's iPhone sales estimates are at $26.9 billion, compared with the Street's general estimates of $29 billion. "We see iPhone demand inflecting higher over the next 6 months once all models are formally released and investors can make a more informed decision coupled with materially attractive carrier subsidies," Daryanani said. Deutsche Bank — which has a buy rating on Apple — said it is "unsure that AAPL will feel comfortable with guidance" as "they have not guided officially since January, and for the Dec-qtr, they typically have 1.5 months of new iPhone sales data prior to guidance, a luxury they don't have for this iPhone cycle." Bank of America, which has a neutral rating on Apple, also told clients the launch timing of iPhone creates more uncertainty for the technology giant. Shares of Apple were up slightly Monday morning. — with reporting from CNBC's Michael Bloom.

A customer exits after picking up Apple's new 5G iPhone 12 that went on sale, as the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak continues, at an Apple Store in Brooklyn, New York, October 23, 2020.

Brendan McDermid | Reuters

(This story is for CNBC Pro subscribers only.)

Apple reports earnings on Thursday and Wall Street is bullish on the stock despite uncertainty about sales guidance due to the delayed iPhone event.