These stocks will be the big winners from likely record e-commerce holiday sales, Jefferies says

Published Wed, Nov 25 202012:33 PM ESTUpdated Fri, Nov 27 20208:55 AM EST

(This story is for CNBC Pro subscribers only.) With Covid-19 cases soaring around the Black Friday shopping holiday, Jefferies expects online stores to take center stage, with a few companies emerging as big winners. The Wall Street firm is forecasting a record holiday for e-commerce, with sales growth of 33%, an 18% jump since last year. "We expect a surge in COVID cases to drive strong e-commerce sales this holiday season, with over 50% of consumers planning to spend more online according to our proprietary survey," Jefferies retail analyst Brent Thill told clients. Following the Thanksgiving holiday, shoppers will set out, either in-person or virtually, to capitalize on annual deals from retailers heading into the Christmas shopping season. This holiday shopping season is expected to have a special preference to online orders, as e-commerce emerges a huge winner from the Covid-19 pandemic. Plus, there are two more shopping days between Thanksgiving and Christmas than there were last year. "As usual, key shopping days such as Thanksgiving Day, Black Friday , and Cyber Monday are expected to see the strongest sales growth," said Thill. Jefferies said buy-rated Amazon and Etsy are its top picks for the holiday shopping season. "AMZN (Buy) is best positioned to benefit in our view as massive investments in logistics allow it to better meet elevated demand," Thill told clients. Thill said Amazon's massive logistics expansion in 2020, which grew 70% in the U.S. and 50% globally, will be a key differentiator this holiday season. The firm said other retailers that didn't invest in their logistics infrastructure may face delivery delays from capacity shortages at third party carriers. The firm has a $3,800 per share price target on Amazon. Jefferies also said Etsy should benefit from the home nesting and its aggressive marketing campaign. "We also think judging how much someone will spend on ETSY is hard given ongoing improvements to search and discovery that are improving frequency and reach," said Thill. Jefferies has a $168 per share price target on Etsy. Jefferies said that e-commerce company eBay — which has rallied more than 40% this year due to the pandemic — screened poorly in its surveys. The firm has a hold rating on eBay's stock. "For EBAY, the same percentage of respondents plan to spend more and less on the site/app, which is the same result as last year despite the well-documented shift to e-commerce since the pandemic started," added Thill. — with reporting from CNBC's Michael Bloom.

Executives of Etsy applaud as they open the Nasdaq MarketSite ahead of Etsy's initial public offering in New York, April 16, 2015.

Michael Nagle | Bloomberg | Getty Images

(This story is for CNBC Pro subscribers only.)

With Covid-19 cases soaring around the Black Friday shopping holiday, Jefferies expects online stores to take center stage, with a few companies emerging as big winners.

The Wall Street firm is forecasting a record holiday for e-commerce, with sales growth of 33%, an 18% jump since last year.

"We expect a surge in COVID cases to drive strong e-commerce sales this holiday season, with over 50% of consumers planning to spend more online according to our proprietary survey," Jefferies retail analyst Brent Thill told clients.