BofA picks 3 auto stocks to buy as ‘car wars’ heat up

Published Fri, Jun 4 20213:02 AM EDTUpdated Fri, Jun 4 20213:14 AM EDT

Electric vehicles and other new models are set to boost three auto stocks in particular, according to Bank of America , which analyzed car companies' U.S. production pipelines. Incumbent car manufacturers are likely to beat start-up EV companies, especially those that have gone public via reverse mergers with special-purpose acquisition companies (SPACs), BofA's analysts said in their "Car Wars" study, published Wednesday. BofA's analysts led by John Murphy looked at new models likely to be produced in the U.S. from 2022 to 2025. They analyzed automakers' electric vehicle strategies as well as their replacement rate, or the volume of all-new models sold per year. "Replacement rate drives showroom age, which drives market share, which, in turn, drives profits, and ultimately stock prices," the analysts wrote. BofA's buy-rated auto picks are: " Honda will lead the industry in terms of replacement rate, set to refresh essentially its entire product portfolio in the next four model years," BofA's analysts stated. They also like Honda's forthcoming Civic model, because its modular design means it can share parts with other models and this is set to "improve the company's margin profile." Toyota is just behind Honda in terms of its replacement rate, BofA said, with a lull in 2022-2023 before a "significant reacceleration" in 2024-2025. The bank also likes Toyota's electric vehicle strategy, which includes hybrid, electric and fuel cell models. GM has a different strategy from its peers, with a focus on "niche, lower volume electric vehicles versus the traditional effort of refreshing high volume models," BofA stated. The bank expects the automaker to launch up to 20 EVs in the U.S. over the next four years. "The focus on the future business provides long-term upside potential," the analysts added. BofA noted a "litany" of EV start-ups have recently gone public via reverse mergers with SPACs but its analysts are "skeptical around their ability to execute." British EV company Arrival started trading on the Nasdaq in March, while shares of CCIV tanked after its merger with Lucid Motors . "We expect a fierce competitive environment will manifest from incumbent OEMs [original equipment manufacturers] also ramping up alternative powertrain product launches, which could limit success for these newer entrants," BofA's analysts added.