Stocks usually fall during Powell's news conference, and Cramer thinks it may happen again

Published Wed, Jun 16 20219:46 AM EDTUpdated Wed, Jun 16 202111:46 AM EDT

Stocks tend to fall slightly when Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks during his post-decision news conferences, history shows. And CNBC's Jim Cramer believes we could be setting up for a similar performance, and possibly even worse. Bespoke Investment Group looked at the intraday data and found the S & P 500 typically is higher going into the 2:30 p.m. ET news conference, but then, on average, turns lower when Powell's briefing begins. After the move down, the benchmark ends Powell press conference days lower by 2 basis points, according to Bespoke. (1 basis point is 0.01%.) "Powell taking the podium has been the equivalent of 'last call' at a bar," the firm said in a note. This time, the Fed chief is faced with one of the tougher tightrope walks in his tenure as markets expect him to address the bubbling inflationary pressures that he previously characterized as transitory. At the same time, many believe Powell could upset the market if he signals that the central bank will start tapering its ultra-easy monetary policy. Investors will parse through tiny shifts in sentiment during Powell's delicate dance Wednesday afternoon. The Fed's statement on policy and forecasts will be released at 2 p.m. ET Wednesday and Powell will take the podium at 2:30 p.m. Billionaire investor Paul Tudor Jones told CNBC on Monday that this is the most important news conference in Powell's career, and if he's not careful, it could lead to another taper tantrum that may cause a correction in stocks. Cramer echoed that sentiment on Wednesday, saying Powell could trigger a sell-off in the stock market as reporters will likely grill him on inflation. "I think that a lot of the heckling, which is what I regard the questions of the press being, is going to be about oil and inflation and at some point if Powell breaks his resolve and says, 'Yes, I'm looking at oil,' the traders will come in at 2:43 and smash the market." Cramer said. "Press has to give Powell a hard time. At one point Powell slips up, the market goes down big." To be sure, the market's performance during Powell's briefing has been less negative in the coronavirus pandemic era. The average for the past year's Fed days has seen the S & P 500 hit its highs of the day after the news conference begins, and while there has been a sharp reversal off those highs, by the end of the day, the S & P 500 has only been modestly below its pre-announcement levels, according to Bespoke.

Bespoke Investment Group looked at the intraday data and found the S&P 500 typically is higher going into the 2:30 p.m. ET news conference, but then, on average, turns lower when Powell's briefing begins. After the move down, the benchmark ends Powell press conference days lower by 2 basis points, according to Bespoke. (1 basis point is 0.01%.)

"Powell taking the podium has been the equivalent of 'last call' at a bar," the firm said in a note.