Oil could spike above $100 next year, Bank of America says

Published Mon, Jun 21 20219:18 AM EDTUpdated Mon, Jun 21 202110:59 AM EDT

Oil could hit $100 per barrel next year as demand outstrips supply, according to Bank of America. The firm identified three factors on the demand and supply side that should support prices into 2022. Analysts led by Francisco Blanch pointed to pent-up travel demand following more than a year of lockdown, and said that consumers forgoing public transit in favor of private cars will also raise demand for fuel. Finally, remote work could lead to more miles driven as consumers hit the road without being restricted by in-office work. On the supply side, Bank of America highlighted policy pressure to curb capex to meet goals outlined in the Paris Agreement, as well as calls from ESG-focused investors to shift dollars toward green energy. Judicial pressures to limit emissions are also growing, with a Dutch court ruling in May that Shell must reduce carbon emissions by 45% by 2030. "In short, demand is poised to bounce back and supply may not fully keep up, placing OPEC in control of the oil market in 2022," the firm wrote in a note to clients. OPEC and its oil-producing allies implemented historic production cuts of nearly 10 million barrels per day last year as the pandemic sapped worldwide demand for petroleum products. West Texas Intermediate crude futures have rallied 80% over the last year and traded around $71.30 per barrel on Monday, while Brent crude futures were at $73.50. While Bank of America believes the gains are in for this year, the current market conditions could push Brent to $100 in 2022. Blanch anticipates oil demand growing by 11.7 million barrels per day year over year during the second quarter. After that, he sees demand rising by 5.6 million bpd day for the next three quarters, leading to global demand sitting at 101 million bpd by the end of 2022. "With the oil market likely to remain in deficit due to this rapid sequential demand increase, we expect pressure on inventories to continue. In our projections, the oil market will likely remain in deficit for the foreseeable future, averaging a shortfall of 0.9 million barrels per day over the next six quarters." The firm now sees Brent and WTI averaging $68 per barrel and $65 per barrel respectively in 2021. In 2022, those numbers go up to $75 and $71. But at that point, the market will likely respond to the higher prices in the form of reduced demand or U.S. supply coming back online, which means Brent should average $65 in 2023, the firm said. Amid this backdrop, Bank of America said its top ideas in the oil patch include Exxon , Occidental , Hess and Devon Energy . - CNBC's Michael Bloom contributed reporting.

Pump jacks operate in front of a drilling rig in an oil field in Midland, Texas.

Nick Oxford | Reuters

Oil could hit $100 per barrel next year as demand outstrips supply, according to Bank of America.

The firm identified three factors on the demand and supply side that should support prices into 2022. Analysts led by Francisco Blanch pointed to pent-up travel demand following more than a year of lockdown, and said that consumers forgoing public transit in favor of private cars will also raise demand for fuel.

Finally, remote work could lead to more miles driven as consumers hit the road without being restricted by in-office work.