The bull market for these ‘green’ metal stocks is just beginning, Goldman Sachs says

Published Mon, Jun 28 20217:30 PM EDT

Lucy Handley @in/lucy-handley-b2b0a61a/@lucyhandley

Analysts at Goldman Sachs have picked out "green" aluminum stocks that they believe will benefit from a bull market for the metal that could last several years. Aluminum production contributes around 3% of global carbon emissions each year and the race to reduce such pollution is "well underway," according to Goldman in a research note published Thursday. The metal is used in the manufacturing of everything from airplanes to laptops. In the note titled "The race for Green Aluminium: Upgrading prices & picking Green winners," the analysts said they have "little doubt that investors should view aluminium as in the early stages of a multi-year bull market," due to a combination of rising demand and "progressively larger" supply deficits. Firms that can reduce their emissions are set to see a "green premium" in their stock prices — and some may make billions of dollars from new green tech, Goldman added. Here are some of the bank's stock picks: U.S. firm Alcoa is buy-rated by Goldman, which increased its earnings per share estimates by 14% for the year and by 30% for 2023 due to rising aluminum prices. The bank also likes Alcoa's debt reduction plans and heightened focus on green targets, and added that new green tech the company is producing "could potentially be worth billions of $" to the firm. Norwegian company Hydro is also buy-rated for its sector-beating earnings growth, and green initiatives such as recycling and investment in battery technology, that offer "significant upside," according to the analysts. Goldman did not detail EPS estimates, but upped its expectations for earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization by 22% for this year. Goldman picked Russian producer Rusal — which is set to spin off its older, higher-emitting smelters into a separate company — raising its EPS estimates by 9% for the year, rising to a 29% increase in 2022. The bank likes its "strong earnings momentum." Australian mining company South32 is estimated to increase its EPS by 1% this year and 20% by 2023, Goldman said. While the bank said the firm isn't doing as well at reducing emissions than its peers, it remains buy-rated due to its "strong" free cashflow outlook and likely increase in dividend returns. Green premium "We think those companies that can reduce their emission intensity may attract a valuation premium vs. peers with the likely increase in green metal premia driven by demand from customers. Conversely, as we outlined in our Mining to Net Zero report, we think investors will likely penalise companies who do not reduce absolute emissions and emissions intensity and/or achieve targets," Goldman's analysts stated. Companies are set to reduce their emissions by using hydro power to manufacture aluminum. A tight market A lack of supply combined with high demand is set to push aluminum prices to their highest levels since the late 2000s when they traded around $3,000 per metric ton, Goldman said. "The team upgraded their 12-month target to US$3,000/t from US$2,650/t which signals close to 20% upside from spot," the bank's analysts wrote. "The team expects the first half of the 2020s will see the lowest five-year period for global primary metal supply growth in close to 40 years. This will be set against a green reinforced demand environment, which will generate an extension through the 2020s of what has been a very strong decade for aluminium consumption in the 2010s," the analysts added.

A worker loads an aluminum coil onto a loading dock at the Arconic manufacturing facility in Alcoa, Tennessee.

Luke Sharrett | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Analysts at Goldman Sachs have picked out "green" aluminum stocks that they believe will benefit from a bull market for the metal that could last several years.