Here are the key metrics to watch in Netflix's earnings report that will drive the stock

Published Tue, Jul 20 202111:16 AM EDT

The most important number in Netflix 's second quarter results after the bell won't be about the second quarter at all. Netflix has already forecast minimal net subscriber additions for the second quarter — typically a seasonally weak one — because pandemic shutdowns delayed content production on many new series and movies to the third quarter and beyond. Netflix has estimated just 1 million new members will join the streaming service in the quarter ended June 30. That compares to 10 million net additions in the second quarter of 2020 — an unusually high number driven by people stuck at home amid Covid-19 quarantines. The key figure for investors will be the company's third-quarter net addition prediction. Most analysts have predicted Netflix will forecast net additions of about 5 million to 5.5 million new customers for the third quarter, globally. The bounce back is predicated on subscribers flocking new content, including Netflix favorites like "Money Heist," "Sex Education," and "Kissing Booth 3," which all return in the third quarter. How Netflix's actual forecast compares to that figure may be the lead driver of share movement Tuesday after the market's close. Here are three other Netflix storylines to follow when the company announces its second-quarter earnings: 1. Netflix's video game interests Netflix announced July 14 it had hired video-game executive Mike Verdu from Facebook , ushering in a new era for the company that's just focused on video to date. Investors will be focusing on any details Netflix provides that suggest how video games will function within the service, if a Netflix gaming controller is on the way, and how much the company plans on spending on the new opportunity. Little is known about Netflix's gaming strategy, so any detailed commentary will help guide investors. With Netflix willing to dabble in gaming (at the least), it will be interesting if executives shed light on other potential ancillary revenue streams that don't yet exist. 2. International expansion The Netflix bull thesis has been about international expansion for several years. Some analysts predict the number of U.S. and Canada subscribers may actually fall in the second quarter, suggesting a mature business with limited near-term growth potential. The Asia-Pacific (APAC) region will be of key interest to Netflix investors, as that's where the company is banking on the most significant customer additional growth. Average revenue per user for APAC was $9.71 per month in the first quarter, well below the $14.25 ARPU figure in the U.S. and Canada. 3. Competition Netflix has consistently brushed aside the wave of new streaming services in its quarterly section on competition in its shareholder letter. Instead of blaming competitive threats for slowing growth, Netflix has actually claimed added competition will aid future growth because each new service helps induce people to cancel traditional pay-TV, making Netflix a more appealing alternative. Still, while global Netflix growth may not be knocked off course by the slew of new services, the company's ability to raise prices could be altered . Almost every other streaming service has an ARPU below $14.25, framing Netflix as a premium offering. The company will need to consistently deliver content winners to keep that positioning without a backlash. WATCH: Netflix adds video games: LightShed analyst Rich Greenfield speaks on Squawk Box

Reed Hastings, co-founder and CEO of Netflix, gestures during an event of the Fundacion Telmex Mexico Siglo XXI (Telmex Foundation Mexico XXI Century) in Mexico City, Mexico, September 6, 2019.

Edgard Garrido | Reuters

The most important number in Netflix's second quarter results after the bell won't be about the second quarter at all.