Earnings playbook: An investor's guide to the big reports this week including Apple and Amazon

Published Sun, Oct 24 20217:51 AM EDT

Sara Salinas @in/saracsalinas @saracsalinas

The biggest names in tech report quarterly earnings this week, and they could be particularly messy if Snap's advertising revenue warning is any indicator. Facebook, Twitter, Alphabet and Amazon are all set to report, followed by Apple toward the end of the week. A handful of food and beverage plays are also reporting and are likely to shed more light on labor shortage and supply chain concerns. CNBC runs through which companies are due this week and what metrics will be in the spotlight. Monday Restaurant Brands Int'l. is set to report quarterly results at 6:30 a.m. ET, followed by an investor call at 8:30 a.m. Last quarter: QSR topped estimates as domestic digital sales grow nearly 60% This quarter: The Street expects about 8% earnings growth over the same quarter last year What CNBC restaurants reporter Amelia Lucas is watching: "Out of Restaurant Brands' three chains, Tim Hortons will once again be the major focus for investors. The Canadian coffee chain typically accounts for 60% of Restaurant Brands' revenue, yet it's become the laggard of Restaurant Brands' portfolio. Its home market's slow recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic has weighed on its results and delayed its turnaround." What history shows: Restaurant Brands stock has gained the day after its earnings report each of the last 2 quarters after a 4-quarter streak of next-day losses, according to Bespoke Investment Group. Facebook will report earnings just after market close and will hold an investor call at 5 p.m. ET Last quarter: FB beat earnings expectations , but warned of a significant growth slowdown This quarter: Wall Street is expecting an 18% earnings upside from last year What CNBC technology reporter Salvador Rodriguez is watching: "Facebook investors will brace for the revenue growth deceleration that the company warned about last quarter — especially after seeing how Snap's advertising business was impacted by Apple's privacy changes — but more importantly, they'll be eager to hear from CEO Mark Zuckerberg on his call with analysts. This'll be Zuckerberg's first time speaking publicly after a barrage of negative reports and congressional hearings stemming from a trove of documents leaked by whistleblower Frances Haugen." What history shows: Facebook has a stellar record of beating on the top and bottom lines, according to Bespoke. Still, the stock has declined after its earnings reports 3 of the last 4 quarters. Tuesday Alphabet is set to release earnings right at 4 p.m. ET and will hold and investor call at 4:30 p.m. Last quarter: GOOGL smashed EPS and revenue projections and reported ad revenue nearly 70% higher year over year This quarter: Analysts are expecting earnings to come in 43% higher year over year What CNBC technology reporter Jennifer Elias is watching: " The shock of how Apple's iOS privacy changes will affect advertiser spending sent Snap's stock down after hours more than 25% Thursday . It also caused other tech stocks to dip — although Alphabet, less so. Analysts think the Google parent company will be able to stave off any major hit, since it owns its own operating system Android and offers workarounds options for advertisers. It also has a broader ecosystem of advertisers than any other company, meaning it'll have better cushion to absorb headwinds." What history shows: The third quarter is the strongest for Alphabet stock following an earnings report, with shares gaining an average of 4.5% in next-day trading after Q3 results, according to Bespoke. Microsoft is slated to report results at 4:05 p.m. ET, with an analyst call at 5:30 p.m. Last quarter: MSFT posted a big earnings beat and gave an optimistic revenue forecast This quarter: Wall Street is looking for 14% year-over-year EPS growth What CNBC technology reporter Jordan Novet is watching: "Investors are eager to see how fast the Azure public cloud is growing. In July finance chief Amy Hood told analysts to look for stable revenue growth on a sequential basis in constant currency. There's also interest in an update on the pending $19.7 billion acquisition of Nuance Communications. In the quarter Microsoft said that in 2022 it will increase the price of commercial Office subscriptions. Additional information about cybersecurity revenue growth and investment could garner attention as well." What history shows: Microsoft stock has been on something of a losing streak, declining the day after an earnings release 4 of the last 5 quarters, according to Bespoke. Twitter will release results at 4:05 p.m. ET, followed by an investor call at 6 p.m. Last quarter: TWTR put up its fastest revenue growth since 2014 This quarter: Analysts are all over the map with EPS expectations for Twitter. On average they're expecting a 20% downside from last year. What CNBC technology reporter Salvador Rodriguez is watching: "After Snap's disastrous third-quarter results that stemmed from Apple's iPhone privacy changes, Twitter investors will be anxious to see how the company's own advertising business has been affected by the roll out of iOS 14.5." What history shows: It's kind of anyone's guess what Twitter stock will do the day after an earnings report. Shares have alternately gained and lost ground each of the last 8 quarters, according to Bespoke, rising as much as 15% and falling as much as 21%. Advanced Micro Devices is set to report earnings at 4:15 p.m. ET, followed by a call with executives at 5 p.m. Last quarter: AMD beat on the top and bottom lines , boosted by strong performance in data center and gaming segments This quarter: The Street is projecting a 63% jump in earnings over the same quarter a year ago What CNBC technology reporter Kif Leswing is watching: " AMD is one of the companies benefiting the most from the recent surge in PC sales. However, the real growth driver at AMD is its enterprise and semi-custom business, which sells chips for servers as well as the processor at the heart of the Sony PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series S. As anyone who's tried to get a new gaming console or powerful PC in the last year knows, many of these devices have been sold out and hard to find. Analysts will be watching to see if CEO Lisa Su offers any hints about how the company has dealt with supply challenges and when it expects the shortages to let up." What history shows: AMD stock trades higher following an earnings release just a third of the time, according to Bespoke. Last quarter was a rare bright spot, though, and shares gained 7.5%. Robinhood is due to report results after the bell, with an analyst call scheduled for 5 p.m. ET Last quarter: HOOD saw its revenue double , but cautioned trading was slowing This quarter: Analysts are expecting to see Robinhood continue to narrow its per-share losses What CNBC markets report Maggie Fitzgerald is watching: "Tuesday will mark Robinhood's second earnings report as a public company. All eyes will be on the trading platform's cryptocurrency business, which represented more than half of transaction-based revenue in the second quarter. Robinhood warned investors that trading activity was slowing in the third quarter, which could hit the brokerage's top line. However, with the price of bitcoin at an all-time high and Robinhood's launch of the crypto wallet pending, the app's crypto business could continue to be a tailwind." What history shows: Last quarter the stock sold off more than 10% after the company's earnings report. Wednesday Coca-Cola is due to report earnings just before 7 a.m. ET, with an investor call at 8:30 a.m. Last quarter: KO reported revenue that surpassed 2019 levels and hiked its full-year outlook This quarter: The Street expects just 5% earnings growth over last year What CNBC restaurants reporter Amelia Lucas is watching: "Last quarter, Coca-Cola's revenue returned to 2019 levels, but investors will be watching to see if sales took a hit from the Covid delta variant. Another area of focus will be commodity costs and if the company sticks to its current strategy of raising prices and using productivity levers." What history shows: Coca-Cola stock has gained ground 3 of the last 4 quarters, but it usually puts up small next-day returns, according to Bespoke. McDonald's will release earnings just before 7 a.m. ET and will hold a call with executives at 8:30 a.m. Last quarter: MCD beat on the bottom line , driven by new offerings and popular promotions This quarter: Analysts are forecasting an 11% jump in earnings compared with the year-ago period What CNBC restaurants reporter Amelia Lucas is watching: "The Golden Arches has bounced back from last year's shrinking sales relatively quickly, but one area of concern is customer traffic. The company's U.S. locations were losing transactions before Covid, and the pandemic exacerbated the problem. Investors will also be watching to see how it weathered issues hitting the broader restaurant industry, like labor challenges, higher food costs and the delta variant." What history shows: McDonald's is facing a tough losing streak. The stock has fallen the day after an earnings report 6 of the last 8 quarters, according to Bespoke. Boeing is slated to report results at 7:30 a.m. ET, followed by an investor call at 10:30 a.m. Last quarter: BA reported a surprise profit as aircraft demand rebounded from a pandemic slump This quarter: Wall Street is projecting one more quarter of per-share losses before Boeing returns to an EPS profit What CNBC airlines reporter Leslie Josephs is watching: " Boeing is still trying to find its footing, nearly three years after the first crash of its best-selling 737 Max set off a yearslong crisis. While sales have resumed and picked up, key to Boeing's next move is when it will resume deliveries of the 787 Dreamliner, which have been suspended for most of the past year as it reviews several quality lapses. The company already said in July it would bring down production to fewer than five a month . Where to from here? Executives will be asked for further detail on its long-delayed 777X and what plans it has for a new freighter." What history shows: Boeing stock gained 4% last quarter following the company's earnings report, snapping a 4-quarter streak of next-day losses, according to Bespoke. General Motors is set to report earnings at 7:30 a.m. ET, with an analyst call at 10 a.m. Last quarter: GM missed EPS projections , but raised its 2021 guidance This quarter: Wall Street sees massive EPS downside for GM, with consensus estimates coming in 76% below Q3 2020 metrics What CNBC autos reporter Michael Wayland is watching: "This is the first earnings report since GM laid out detailed plans about its future financial targets, including a goal of doubling revenue and increasing profit margins to between 12% and 14% by 2030. Given the amount of information released during the Oct. 6 investor day, analysts and investors will be focused on short-term problems such as low vehicle inventory levels due to the semiconductor chip shortage and any additional supply chain disruptions heading into 2022." What history shows: There's no real trend in GM's recent trading around earnings, according to Bespoke. The stock has alternately gained and lost for the last 6 quarters. Ford Motor will release its earnings report after the closing bell and will hold an investor call at 5 p.m. ET Last quarter: F raised its full-year forecast after a surprise profit This quarter: Analysts are similarly wary of Ford's EPS outlook, projecting a 60% downside year over year What CNBC autos reporter Michael Wayland is watching: "Like GM, Ford continues to face challenges due to supply chain issues, specifically the semiconductor chip shortage. In July, Ford raised its guidance for the year but advised the second half of the year would be weaker than the first regarding its operating profit, which was at $5.9 billion through June. Ford's stock is up nearly 90% this year, so investors will be watching for any additional tailwinds or headwinds for the automaker heading into next year." What history shows: Ford has traded higher following an earnings report for 3 of the last 4 quarters, but that down quarter saw a 9% next-day sell-off, according to Bespoke. Thursday Comcast is scheduled to report earnings at 7 a.m. ET, followed by an investor call at 8:30 a.m. Last quarter: CMCSA topped EPS estimates and gained record internet customers This quarter: The Street expects earnings and revenue each to come in 16% higher than last year What CNBC technology reporter Alex Sherman is watching: Comcast is a multi-faceted company, providing TV and mobile service, entertainment content from NBCUniversal, theme park operations, and streaming video service via Peacock. But investors still care most about the company's core growth product: high-speed broadband. Shares were temporarily rocked in September when CFO Michael Cavanagh tamped down broadband expectations, blaming Covid for disrupting typical back-to-school patterns. The stock will trade on how many — or few — broadband customers Comcast added in the quarter." What history shows: Comcast stock is on a 4-quarter winning streak the day after earnings reports, according to Bespoke. Yum! Brands is due to report results at 7 a.m. ET, with an investor called scheduled for 8:15 a.m. Last quarter: YUM beat earnings estimates as sales rebounded at Taco Bell, KFC and Pizza Hut This quarter: Wall Street is expecting 7% EPS growth over the same quarter last year What CNBC restaurants reporter Amelia Lucas is watching: "The big question for Yum is if KFC and Pizza Hut can hold onto the new customers they gained earlier in the pandemic. Both chains benefitted from the switch to takeout and delivery, but customers may be looking to try something new as more restaurants reopened their doors. When it comes to Taco Bell, the third chain in Yum's portfolio, the focus will be on the recovery of its late-night and morning sales." What history shows: Yum Brands shares gained the day following an earnings report the last 2 quarters, after falling in next-day trading for the previous 6 quarters. Amazon will release earnings right around market close and will host an analyst call at 5:30 p.m. ET Last quarter: AMZN posted its third $100 billion quarter in a row , but still fell short of expectations This quarter: Analyst consensus estimates see a 28% year-over-year downside in EPS this quarter What CNBC technology reporter Annie Palmer is watching: "We could see signs of a slowdown in revenue growth, as Amazon faces tough pandemic comps and consumers resume offline shopping. Investors will also be watching for any commentary around supply chain issues. Amazon has spent big to build out a robust army of warehouses, planes, ships and trucks. The question is whether that has insulated the company from the heat of supply chain snags, especially as the holidays creep up." What history shows: Amazon shares have fallen the day after the company's earnings report 9 out of the last 12 quarters, according to Bespoke. Five of those declines were of more than 5%. Starbucks is slated to release results at 4:05 p.m. ET, with an investor call at 5 p.m. Last quarter: SBUX saw strong U.S. cold beverage sales , but offered a weak China outlook This quarter: Analysts are expecting Starbucks' earnings to nearly double over last year What CNBC restaurants reporter Amelia Lucas is watching: "It's all about the U.S. and China, Starbucks' two largest markets. For its home market, investors will want to see how the coffee chain was impacted by the delta variant and its fallout, like the delays in the return to offices and more workers calling out sick. In China, all eyes will be on the country's recovery, particularly since last quarter the company warned it was going slower than anticipated." What history shows: Starbucks shares have lost ground in next-day trading for the past 4 quarters, according to Bespoke. Apple will report its latest earnings at 4:30 p.m. ET, followed by an analyst call at 5 p.m. Last quarter: AAPL crushed expectations , but issued an iPhone chip supply warning This quarter: The Street is looking for nearly 70% earnings growth year over year What CNBC technology reporter Kif Leswing is watching: " Apple is reporting during an unprecedented hot streak for the company. Every product line grew by double digits in its most recent earnings report. If there's anything that could slow growth for the Cupertino juggernaut's sales and profits, it's the ongoing global chip shortage. Analysts will be watching closely to see if Apple has had issues producing enough computers and phones to meet surging demand. Also note that these earnings will only include a few days of iPhone 13 sales, which first hit store shelves in late September." What history shows: Apple has a great track record of beating EPS estimates, according to Bespoke. Still, the stock has fallen in next-day trading 5 of the last 6 quarters. Friday Chevron is due to report earnings before the opening bell and will hold an investor call at 11 a.m. ET Last quarter: CVX reinstated its share repurchase program and beat projections across the board This quarter: Wall Street is projecting major EPS improvement from Q3 2020, when Chevron reported just 11 cents per share What CNBC energy reporter Pippa Stevens is watching: "For energy companies it's all about dividends and capital spending plans. The oil giants navigated the unprecedented demand loss from the pandemic — WTI went negative! — and have emerged on the other side. U.S. oil is now at a 7-year high, but uncertainty lingers as companies navigate a changing energy landscape. Shareholders have rewarded capital discipline and debt reduction, and so will be closely watching capital spending plans and output targets. Chevron said in September that it plans to spend $10 billion through 2028 on emissions-reducing technologies, so investors will be looking for updates around that initiative." What history shows: Chevron stock fares pretty poorly around earnings, according to Bespoke. It trades higher less than half the time and is on a 3-quarter streak of next-day losses. Exxon Mobil is set to release earnings at 7:30 a.m. ET, followed by an analyst call at 9:30 a.m. Last quarter: XOM exceeded EPS expectations and narrowly edged out revenue estimates This quarter: Likewise, analysts are expecting a massive year-over-year turnaround for Exxon after the company posted a loss per share in Q3 2020 What CNBC energy reporter Pippa Stevens is watching: "For Exxon's earnings — much like Chevron's — investors will be focused on shareholder return and capex plans. The company said in a pre-earnings announcement that it expects higher oil and natural gas prices to boost earnings by up to $1.5 billion. Stronger free cashflow could potentially pave the way for a dividend hike." What history shows: It's hard to find a pattern in Exxon's recent trading around earnings. On average, it loses ground, according to Bespoke. Disclosure: Comcast owns CNBC-parent NBCUniversal.

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, October 19, 2021.

Brendan McDermid | Reuters

The biggest names in tech report quarterly earnings this week, and they could be particularly messy if Snap's advertising revenue warning is any indicator.