Earnings playbook: Your roadmap to a week of retail reports, including Target and Home Depot

Published Sun, Nov 14 20218:46 AM ESTUpdated Sun, Nov 14 202110:05 AM EST

Sara Salinas @in/saracsalinas @saracsalinas

It's a big week of retail earnings ahead, with key updates expected on supply chain challenges and holiday spending expectations. Walmart, Target, Home Depot and other retailers are all teed up to report quarterly results. CNBC runs through what to look for in this week's schedule. Tuesday Home Depot will report earnings at 6 a.m. ET, followed by a call with executives at 9 a.m. Last quarter: HD topped estimates , but warned of uncertainty ahead and fewer customers visiting stores. This quarter: Analysts are forecasting roughly 7% EPS growth from the year-ago period. What CNBC retail reporter Melissa Repko is watching: "Home improvement has been on a tear during the pandemic, thanks to a nesting mentality and hot real estate market. Now, Home Depot faces tough year-over-year comparisons and attention is shifting to the strength of home professionals, as consumers hire them again to do bigger jobs like bathroom or kitchen renovations. Investors will be eager to hear if those pros have lifted sales and if other dynamics, such as more millennials moving to the suburbs, are enough to keep the growth going." What history shows: Home Depot stock has sold off following an earnings report each of the last eight quarters, according to Bespoke Investment Group. Walmart is set to release earnings at 7 a.m. ET and will host an investor call at 8 a.m. Last quarter: WMT beat on the top and bottom lines , fueled by strong grocery sales and back-to-school spending. This quarter: The Street is forecasting revenue essentially flat year over year and earnings growth of just 4%. What CNBC retail reporter Melissa Repko is watching: "Walmart is one of many retailers that bet on shoppers buying holiday gifts earlier than usual because of worries that toys and other desired items will run out or get stuck at ports. The big-box retailer will offer some early clues of how the holiday season is shaping up. Investors will also listen for updates on the company's efforts to make money in new ways, from ramping up its ads business to nudging more consumers to sign up for its subscription service, Walmart+." What history shows: Walmart shares have fallen in next-day trading 5 of the last 6 quarters, according to Bespoke. Wednesday Lowe's will release its quarterly earnings at 6 a.m. ET, followed by an investor call at 9 a.m. Last quarter: LOW beat estimates and raised its forecast as a strategy to gain professional customers paid off. This quarter: Wall Street is estimating roughly 18% EPS upside over the same quarter last year. What CNBC retail reporter Melissa Repko is watching: "Pandemic-related home improvement trends came at a fortunate time for Lowe's. The company was already in the middle of a turnaround effort to become a more digital and modern retailer — and got some added tailwinds. It could hit some speed bumps, since it's more heavily reliant on do-it-yourself consumers than its competitor Home Depot and those shoppers may not want to spend as many weekends at home. Investors will listen for progress on growing business among home professionals, which tend to be steadier and more lucrative customers, and whether Lowe's can improve margins even if growth slows." What history shows: Lowe's trading history around earnings releases is pretty mixed, but last quarter the stock gained almost 10%, according to Bespoke. Target is set to report results at 6:30 a.m. ET and will host a call with executives at 8 a.m. Last quarter: TGT topped EPS estimates and boosted its outlook on strong back-to-school spending. This quarter: Analysts are forecasting earnings barely above last year's level. What CNBC retail reporter Melissa Repko is watching: "Target picked up new customers and gained market share during the pandemic, as its big-box stores became like a mini-mall for skittish consumers. It has opened shop-in-shops for Apple, Ulta Beauty and Disney while emphasizing its own brands of workout clothes, home decor and more. Analysts will watch to see if that strategy is continuing to pay off, especially as the holiday season gains steam and consumers direct more of their wallet toward experiences like dining out and traveling again." What history shows: There's no real pattern to Target's trading history around earnings. On average, the stock comes out fractionally ahead in next-day trading, according to Bespoke. Nvidia will report earnings around 4:20 p.m. ET and will host a call with analysts at 5 p.m. Last quarter: NVDA beat EPS expectations , but its cryptocurrency chip sales faltered. This quarter: The Street is looking for 52% EPS growth over the year-ago quarter. What CNBC technology reporter Kif Leswing is watching: " Conditions are great for Nvidia: It makes essential semiconductors for artificial intelligence and gaming, and demand has been booming over the past few quarters. The stock is up over 130% so far in 2021. Like other semiconductor companies, supply has been limited, especially for its graphics processors, which are popular among gamers and still difficult to find on store shelves. The biggest opportunity for Nvidia going forward may be to become an arms dealer for the 'metaverse.' Nvidia makes chips with the ability to process advanced 3D scenes and power-intensive artificial intelligence algorithms, which means it's well placed to become a supplier for companies that want to build virtual worlds and services." What history shows: Nvidia has a pretty strong track record on earnings, gaining an average of 1.5% in next-day trading, according to Bespoke. Thursday Macy's is slated to report quarterly results just before 7 a.m. ET, with an analyst call set for 8 a.m. Last quarter: M smashed EPS estimates , boosted by new online customers. This quarter: Analysts are looking for a per-share profit, an improvement from a year-ago loss per share. What CNBC retail reporter Lauren Thomas is watching: "After crushing analysts' expectations in the second quarter, investors are looking to see if Macy's will do it again. The department store chain has been gaining new customers online, thanks to investments in its turnaround strategy. Analysts expect the company will give a fourth-quarter outlook on Thursday and update its full-year expectations ahead of the holidays. The company is also likely going to comment, for the first time publicly, on the pressure it's been under from activist group Jana Partners to break up its stores from its e-commerce operations." What history shows: Macy's stock is on something of a hot streak around its quarterly reports. The stock has gained ground four of the last five quarters, including a nearly 20% surge last quarter, according to Bespoke. Kohl's is set to report results at 7 a.m. ET, with an investor call at 9 a.m. Last quarter: KSS doubled the expected quarterly EPS and reported strong foot traffic in stores. This quarter: The Street is forecasting massive upside from the same quarter last year when Kohl's posted EPS of just 1 cent per share. What CNBC retail reporter Lauren Thomas is watching: "Kohl's ended its last quarter a little light on inventory due to supply chain snags and said it would work 'aggressively' to fix that ahead of the holidays. On Thursday, investors want to see evidence that Kohl's took the right approach to keep shelves stocked. The company recently hiked its full-year outlook, too, as shoppers gradually returned to its stores over the summer months. Kohl's is expected to have benefited from a strong back-to-school season, and analysts will now want commentary around its holiday expectations." What history shows: Kohl's stock doesn't historically fare all that well following quarterly reports, but things have been looking brighter recently. The stock has traded higher 3 of the last 4 quarters after the report, according to Bespoke.

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., November 8, 2021.

Brendan McDermid | Reuters

It's a big week of retail earnings ahead, with key updates expected on supply chain challenges and holiday spending expectations.