Earnings playbook: A complete guide to the results ahead this week, as retail reports pick up

Published Sun, Feb 20 20227:32 AM EST

Sara Salinas @in/saracsalinas @saracsalinas

A string of retailers will post results this week for the key holiday quarter. Home Depot, Lowe's and Macy's are all set to report and could set the tone for the rest of retail as inflation threatens to hamstring consumer spending. Here's what CNBC is watching this week: Tuesday Home Depot is set to report earnings around 6 a.m. ET, followed by an analyst call at 9 a.m. Last quarter: HD topped estimates , fueled by a 9.8% jump in sales as consumers fixed up their homes. This quarter: Analysts are expecting a nearly 20% earnings pop year over year. What CNBC retail reporter Melissa Repko is watching: "Home Depot has been a clear pandemic winner, but investors still have high hopes for the home improvement retailer because of the hot housing market and the aging inventory of homes in the U.S. Unlike grocers, the company may be better positioned to pass on rising costs during a period of inflation. Home Depot may finally share a financial outlook, too, after saying for several quarters that the backdrop is too uncertain." What history shows: Last quarter, Home Depot stock snapped an eight-quarter losing streak around its earnings reports, according to Bespoke Investment Group. Macy's is due to report results shortly before 7 a.m. ET, followed by a call with executives at 8 a.m. Last quarter: M announced upbeat earnings and a broad review of its business structure. This quarter: Wall Street is forecasting EPS to more than double over last year's level, on 25% revenue growth. What CNBC retail reporter Lauren Thomas is watching: "Macy's fourth-quarter results were likely boosted by a strong holiday season across the retail industry . Analysts and investors will learn Tuesday just how good the latest three-month period was for the department store. But more importantly, Macy's outlook for the coming year could be what moves the stock. Telsey Advisory Group CEO Dana Telsey said that fiscal 2022 could prove to be more challenging, considering ongoing inflation pressures and difficult year-over-year comparisons. Macy's will likely also be addressing a recent review by AlixPartners, after the department store chain was pressured by activist Jana Partners to split its e-commerce business from its stores." What history shows: Macy's shares gained roughly 20% after each of its last two quarterly reports, according to Bespoke. Wednesday Lowe's is due to release earnings at 6 a.m. ET, with an investor call at 9 a.m. Last quarter: LOW exceeded expectations and lifted its sales forecast as customers invested more in bigger home projects. This quarter: The Street is looking for EPS growth of nearly 30% year over year. What CNBC retail reporter Melissa Repko is watching: "As consumers get out and about again, Lowe's must prove it can win a more frequent, high-spending shopper — home professionals — and weather expected interest rate hikes. The company has traditionally relied more on do-it-yourself projects than its rival Home Depot. Lowe's has already provided a forecast for the year ahead, but may give updates on some of its growth levers, such as expanding merchandise, improving its website and wooing pros." What history shows: Lowe's shares have put up mixed results following its recent quarterly reports, but historically the stock comes out barely ahead, according to Bespoke. Allbirds will report results after market close, with an analyst call set for 5 p.m. ET. Last quarter: BIRD posted a wider loss than the year-ago period , despite a 33% gain in quarterly sales. This quarter: Analysts are forecasting another quarter of per-share losses. What CNBC retail reporter Lauren Thomas is watching: "Allbirds has been opening up more brick-and-mortar stores to try to offset some of the costs that can come with running such a massive online presence. But it could take some time for those bets to pay off. The company is also investing in growing its apparel arm. It should shed some light on that progress when it reports fourth-quarter results." What history shows: Shares of Allbirds shed more than 16% last quarter after its first report as a public company. Thursday Coinbase is set to report its quarterly results right at the market close, and it will host an investor call at 5:30 p.m. Last quarter: COIN missed analysts' revenue estimates , sending shares lower. This quarter: The Street is projecting a per-share profit above last quarter's levels. What CNBC technology reporter Lauren Feiner is watching: "Coinbase warned shareholders last quarter that they should think of holding its stock as a long-term investment, calling its business 'volatile.' Though major cryptocurrencies saw an explosion in value in 2021, they ended the year with a weaker month in December, which investors blamed on the rise of the omicron Covid variant and concerns about the high amount of energy the virtual currency takes to mine. Coinbase's report will likely reflect this turbulent period for cryptocurrency investors." What history shows: Coinbase has only reported results as a public company twice. Shares gained ground two quarters ago and fell sharply last quarter, according to Bespoke. Beyond Meat will release results after the market close and host a call with executives at 5 p.m. ET. Last quarter: BYND shares cratered as losses mounted and the company forecast weak U.S. sales growth ahead. This quarter: Wall Street is expecting Beyond's per-share loss to roughly double over the same quarter last year. What CNBC restaurants reporter Amelia Lucas is watching: "Beyond's third quarter was ugly, and the company said it was expecting some production and demand issues to continue into the fourth quarter. Wall Street analysts are largely bearish on the stock and concerned about the company's long-term growth prospects. All eyes are on the company's food service business, which appears to have the biggest potential for growth." What history shows: Beyond has a terrible track record when it comes to trading around quarterly reports, advancing just 30% of the time and posting an average next-day loss of more than 6%, according to Bespoke. Saturday Berkshire Hathaway is set to release its earnings around 8 a.m. for its traditional weekend report. Last quarter: Berkshire Hathaway's operating earnings popped 18% , and Buffett’s cash pile stood at a record $149 billion. This quarter: Analysts are forecasting roughly 35% earnings growth year over year. What CNBC markets reporter Yun Li is watching: "Berkshire Hathaway's shares have broken out to hit an all-time high in 2022, thanks to a continued recovery in its operating business and Warren Buffett's slew of lucrative stock bets from Apple to big banks and Japanese trading houses. The rally in the new year even pushed Berkshire's market cap above social media giant Meta Platforms. I'm interested to see if Berkshire maintained its aggressive buyback program in the last quarter, and I will be on the lookout for any market commentary from the 91-year-old investing legend in the annual report."

Traders on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, Jan. 12, 2022.

Source: NYSE

A string of retailers will post results this week for the key holiday quarter.