Investing Club: What Cramer is watching Friday — Russia targets Kyiv, oil rolls over, Etsy joins secular winners

Published Fri, Feb 25 20229:02 AM ESTUpdated Fri, Feb 25 202210:05 AM EST

What I am looking at Feb. 25, 2022 Russia-Ukraine: no tanks yet, light casualties ... but, of course, any amount of casualties is bad and needless ... does suggest quick surrender when challenged. At this pace, Russians will be in Ukrainian capital Kyiv this weekend. Oil rolling over. Many say this is a prelude to $120 oil ... the oil stocks seem to be peaking. But not the defense stocks. Pure plays like Lockheed Martin (LMT) doing best. But Raytheon Technologies (RTX) is cheapest. Etsy is a secular winner, joining Airbnb (ABNB) ... Revolve (RVLV) too, but fashion model may be too fickle? Best of the merchant and apparel plays. Etsy can take price. It is raising seller transaction fees to 6.5% from 5%. This is the starting point of ecommerce journey for five million small businesses ... 36 million repeat buyers, 44% overseas. For first quarter, Etsy reported 132% GMS (gross merch sales, a key metric) BUT noticeable deceleration in February. Still: up year-over-year despite end of "lockdown" stimulus in early 2021... Block (SQ), formerly called Square, says "buy now, pay later" now has 122,000 merchants with 1.1% default rate ... February trending ahead of January ... cash app, cash card, cash ecosystem, send spend, bank, invest—the strongest of the neobanks ... Coinbase (COIN) emphasizing unpredictable nature of business but big TAM (total addressable market) over and over. Monthly transacting users (MTUs) was 11.4M vs. 7.4M in previous quarter. Market is now $2.3 trillion, up nearly threefold from $800B ahead of 2020 ... one in four U.S. households? Assets on platform $278B, up from $255B. So far according to RBN Energy almost no additional drilling in Permian. Just privates ... can't move needle. Zscaler (ZS) on "Mad Money" tonight. Good quarter but analysts blame multiple compression ... just price targets cut and no downgrades. Kroger (KR) small dollar bump in price target (to $45) from JPMorgan. LivePerson (LPSN) multiple downgrades on big miss. Like Five9 (FIVN)? Dollar General (DG)—increasingly strapped consumer will go to Dollar General, says Wells Fargo. Why not Walmart (WMT)? Monster Beverage (MNST) should partially rebound, says Deutsche Bank ... but lowered price target. Beyond Meat (BYND) price target lowered at several firms, including JPMorgan, Mizuho, Piper Sandler. Carvana (CVNA): Fourth-quarter results Peloton 2022 or Tesla circa 2019? (Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust is long WMT. See here for a full list of the stocks.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.

Servicemen of the Ukrainian National Guard take positions in central Kyiv, Ukraine February 25, 2022.

Gleb Garanich | Reuters