Investing Club: What Cramer is watching Thursday — Putin's unwinnable war, American Eagle flops, Chevron shines

Published Thu, Mar 3 20229:45 AM ESTUpdated Thu, Mar 3 202210:00 AM EST

What I am looking at March 3, 2022 A war Russian President Vladimir Putin cannot win; the grand miscalculation. His own Iraq. With rich oligarchs, not religion in play. He wanted to rescue Ukraine from the "drug addicts and Nazis" but it turned out that there are no more drug addicts then there are here ... maybe fewer as the Sacklers never got there, and Nazis? Zelenskyy's grandfather lived, but his three uncles perished in the Holocaust. Kharkiv assault: Ukrainian Stalingrad. Using Syrian/Chechnyan tactics now, terror bombings ... Powell — more soft landing talk in front of Congress. Snowflake (SNOW): the end of a great run, or not. I have the insight no one has on this one. Is it the beginning of an opportunity because valuation at last makes sense? They are set up to make big money. About to have an earnings breakout. Operating margin went from -135% three years ago to positive 5% margin this year. Every number going in right direction … things are better. Every commodity stock from Nucor (NUE) to Alcoa (AA) continues to run if it is bottled up in Russia. That's the key: steel, aluminum, oil, natural gas liquids. Oil: no shortage yet but we need 8 million barrels a day — the amount Russia exports — from somewhere. Cybersecurity software maker Okta is losing too much money, even as it has federal contracts to stop identity theft. They are still using the old mode of losing money to be sure you gain share and are partners with everyone including Zscaler (ZS) AND my favorite Palo Alto (PANW). Splunk (SPLK) names Gary Steele CEO, late of Proofpoint ... time to buy? Steele is fantastic. He was free because Proofpoint, one of the best cybersecurity companies, got bought by private equity firm Thoma Bravo.. Steele knows email security; numbers are good. Biohaven (BHVN) price target raised to $154 from $144 at Mizuho ... migraine wonder drug ... Pfizer (PFE) owns 3% plus big milestone payments. Semis start lower every day—why is that? They are still being considered too expensive ... So maybe Broadcom (AVGO) and Marvell (MRVL) will settle tonight. Broadcom industrial and cellphone; Marvell 5G base and high-performance-computing data centers. Analysts stand by American Eagle (AEO) because of its hope for a good second half of 2022 after they kiboshed first half. This is a very poorly run company that was formerly good. It does have north of 3% yield but it was a major mistake for the Club to own it — and that must be addressed in tomorrow's Monthly Meeting call at 12:30 p.m. EST Supply Chain and freight still terrible. Inventories too high. What is going on here? Morgan Stanley downgrades Teradyne (TER) to hold from buy … very negative for the semi equipment group: Applied Materials (AMAT), Lam Research (LRCX), KLA Corp. (KLAC). S & P Global (SPGI) is one of the few index providers still loved by the Street. BMO Capital raises price target to $486 from $473. The other one that is loved is MSCI . Veeva (VEEV) — another high multiple stock that reported a "fine" number which isn't enough for this high a multiple ... Qorvo (QRVO): Morgan Stanley admits that they have been wrong and suggests that this is one to sell ... no China bounce back in smartphone business. Price target cut to $150 from $185. Box posts good quarter and JPMorgan upgrades to hold from sell ... beats by a penny and raised by a penny but still upside surprise. Anaplan (PLAN), Workday (WDAY) competitor, beats by a penny and raised by a penny and Street loves it. Tesla (TSLA) and unions … easy call by CEO Elon Musk who united UAW to hold vote at California factory ... Morgan Stanley research very active this morning: Downgrades Intel (INTC) to sell from hold, but upgrades GlobalFoundries (GFS) to buy from hold. Analyst says Intel shares likely to "move sideways" the next couple years, while Global has strong and growing customer base. Intel to spend up to $100 billion to build huge chip plant in Ohio ... MS says all or nothing and a real spendathon. Best Buy (BBY) net sales for the fourth quarter fell to $16.3 billion vs. $16.5 billion estimate; gross margin was 20.2% vs. estimated 20.4%; adjusted EPS $2.73, in line with estimate. Guidance is earnings per share between $8.85 and $9.15, lower than analysts' $9.15 to $9.36 per share. Citigroup (C) downgraded to hold from a buy at Atlantic Equities and Keffe Bruyette. Uninspiring and subpar target concerns. Near-term risk will hurt buybacks, accounting impact from signing potential contract to sell the Mexico consumer biz ... $2.8 billion charge ... $9.8 billion total exposure to Russia ... bad return on tangible common equity, half that of Morgan Stanley (MS). Tremendous underinvestment. Get this: AT & T (T)—Catalyst drive idea at Morgan Stanley, expects Q2 spin-off of WarnerMedia and Discovery (DISCA) to unlock value ... more details at March 11 analyst meeting … I don't know about this one. Discovery spin worth $6.75 per share. Dubious ... Exxon Mobil (XOM) – BMO Capital raises XOM price target to $86 per share from $73 … we've been waiting for this. JPMogan constructive on FedEx (FDX) into March 17 results … weird call-lagged-expects beat … don't forget they have a fuel surcharge. Amazon (AMZN) CEO Andy Jassy book stores closing … that takes care of that and four stars closing Citi says time to upgrade tech … buy, real yields have plunged ... reverses key theme of 2022 … tech should benefit from sharp drop in yields. Chevron (CVX) analyst day recap: resiliency and stability … can buyback 25% of range .. top pick, price target $160 per share at Cowen. Kroger (KR) huge Q4 beat: 91 cents vs. 72-cent estimate; sees $3.75 to $3.85 vs. guidance of expectations of $3.44 … same-store sale up 4%; two year stack on digital sales up 113%. Albertsons (ACI) — Citi says topline momentum reduce overhang .. ACI disconnect between operations and stock; price target up to $36 per shares from $31. Ford (F) — acceleration in business transformation with creation of electric vehicles and legacy auto divisions; Credit Suisse calls it two clocks: EV and ICE (internal combustion engines). Facebook parent Meta Platforms (FB) — Bernstein says problems are transitory only modest impact and product remains best in class. Guggenheim says buy RH (RH), former Restoration Hardware, global expansion … about to have big positive brand perception. Carvana (CVNA) – stick a fork in it? Morgan Stanley top analyst Adam Jonas says no … more Tesla than Peloton … price target $360 … Jonas still loves it, says don't worry about growth and margins. I think this is a crowded market: Carmax (KMX), Lithia (LAD), Vroom (VRM) all have same model. Lucid (LCID) – Morgan Stanley cuts price target to $12 per share from $16 … 50% overvalued and market still must reset, says Jonas. Goldman Sachs' David Kostin – the case for owning dividend stocks … we did this Wednesday night on "Mad Money." Vale (VALE) – HSBC upgrades the raw materials producer … metals "stronger for longer." (Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust is long AMZN, AVGO, CVX, F, FB, MRVL, MS and NUE. See here for a full list of the stocks.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.

Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a meeting with Governor of Saint Petersburg Alexander Beglov in Moscow, Russia March 1, 2022.

Alexey Nikolskyi | Sputnik | Reuters