Goldman sees 3 oil market scenarios unfolding from Russia-Ukraine war with one taking crude to $175

Published Tue, Mar 8 20221:14 PM EST

With Russia's invasion of Ukraine sending shockwaves through the oil market, Goldman Sachs laid out three scenarios for the price trajectory of crude and updated its Brent forecast. "Given Russia's key role in global energy supply, the global economy could soon be faced with one of the largest energy supply shocks ever," analysts led by Damien Courvalin said in a Monday note. Russia is one of the world's largest oil and gas producers and exporters, and the country's war on Ukraine is disrupting global supply. Sanctions and political pressure could significantly reduce Russian energy exports. President Joe Biden on Tuesday announced the U.S. is banning all Russian oil imports. Brent crude oil , the international benchmark, jumped as much as more than 7% after the announcement and hit a session high of $133.15 per barrel. Goldman expects OPEC, Iran and Venezuela to potentially provide some supply relief. However, the firm said demand destruction due to high prices is needed for the global oil market to move toward normalization. "The uncertainty on how this conflict and oil shortages will be resolved is unprecedented," the note said. To estimate where oil prices could head, Goldman laid out three scenarios for the impact of war in Ukraine on energy supply. Scenario 1: Prior base case In Goldman's prior base-case, the firm expected an accelerated demand-led reblanacing, a pending Iranian nuclear deal and limited disruption to Russian exports. Russian exports would be reduced by half a million barrels per day. In this scenario, Goldman sees Brent spot price at $115 per barrel for the second-quarter and $95 per barrel for 2023. Goldman gave this scenario a 45% probability. Scenario 2: Quotas and waivers Goldman also analyzed a scenario with Western sanctioning causing moderate export disruptions. Russian exports would be reduced by 2 million barrels per day. In this scenario, Goldman sees Brent spot price at $145 per barrel for the second-quarter and $125 per barrel for 2023. Goldman gave this scenario a 40% probability. Scenario 3: Full blockade/capital account closure Finally, the firm looked at a scenario with severe supply constraints, such a self-imposed export restrictions from Russia. Russian exports would be reduced by 4 million barrels per day. In this scenario, Goldman sees Brent spot price at $175 per barrel for the second-quarter and $155 per barrel for 2023. Goldman gave this scenario a 15% probability. New forecast Considering the various scenarios and weighted probabilities, Goldman hiked its outlook on Brent crude. Goldman raised its 2022 Brent spot price forecast to $135 per barrel and its 2023 forecast to $115 per barrel. —CNBC's Michael Bloom contributed to this report.

An oil pumping jack, also known as a "nodding donkey", in an oilfield near Dyurtyuli, in the Republic of Bashkortostan, Russia, on Thursday, Nov. 19, 2020.

Andrey Rudakov | Bloomberg | Getty Images

With Russia's invasion of Ukraine sending shockwaves through the oil market, Goldman Sachs laid out three scenarios for the price trajectory of crude and updated its Brent forecast.