Investing Club: What Cramer is watching Monday — tracking the rippling effects of Russia's invasion and China's latest shutdown

Published Mon, Mar 14 20229:12 AM EDT

What I am looking at March 14, 2022 Oil and gas peaking? I think that it can stay elevated but I can see investors trimming positions. But energy has become the ultimate hedge to the Russia-Ukraine war continuing. Virtual peace talks: I don't trust them but could be time to get started. Michael O'Hanlon from Brookings says Russia finds itself in a situation similar to Iraq's in 2003, reckless indifference to human life. Russian oligarchs asking for their money back ... How much? How great? How much pressure will hedge funds be under? Freezing assets means what? The Chechen analogy is playing out with Russia's invasion, but so is the comparison to Aleppo. These are the two outcomes we must be concerned about. Goldman Sachs says recession risk partially priced in ... Revised year-end forecast for the S & P 500 Index to 4,700 from 4,900 … 12% upside revision for oil EPS ... buy healthcare too. McDonald's (MCD) price target lowered to $280 from $290 at Oppenheimer, factoring in company's "above average" exposure to Russia. Citi (C) is taking a big hit from Russia. Wells Fargo analyst Mike Mayo takes price target to $70 from $80. I don't think we know the real exposure. We don't know real exposure from JPMorgan (JPM) either — margin calls. Shenzhen shutdown will cause more supply-chain problems. Mainland China is facing its worst Covid-19 outbreak since the country first clamped down in 2020. Why can't China get it under control? Pfizer (PFE) says we need fourth shot. We are looking for a bump, says former FDA Commissioner Scott Gottleib. Once again tech cannot hold its strength. Shutdown … how long will this really matter to our tech stocks? When Is it factored in. Keycorp says Apple (AAPL) demand staying strong ... demand resilient while supply has improved. Affirm (AFRM) — does it have access to lots of capital beyond the ABS (asset-backed securities) market? Nike (NKE) — will disappoint according to UBS ... China not coming back very fast. FedEx (FDX) price target lowered to $300 from $325 at KeyBanc, cites labor and weather ... company reports March 17. Bonds falling apart ahead of the Federal Reserve's Wednesday meeting. Nokia (NOK) upgraded at Raymond James, says looks like the company's business has "inflected." At Thursday's analyst meeting, we will hear that they are taking share from Huawei. Customer demand sounds strong. Morgan Stanley — stepping to sidelines on Chevron (CVX) and Occidental Petroleum (OXY) after strong outperformance; both downgraded to hold from buy. CVX is up 46% this year. We are NOT selling our position after already booking profits last Tuesday as it is a great hedge. Peloton (PTON) initiated with an equal weight at Morgan Stanley, says it's still the "clear leader" in connected fitness. JMP Securities says there is strong demand, especially for subscription pricing that allows consumers to rent a bike. Chipotle (CMG) price target lowered to $2,500 from $2600 at Piper Sandler ... typical price target cut to be in sync with stock without anything negative. Tyson Foods (TSN) — hold from buy at BMO Capital, says no longer expecting big upside ... Dollar General (DG) price target cut to $263 from $272 at JPMorgan. (Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust is long AAPL, CVX. See here for a full list of the stocks.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.

Rescuers work next to a residential building damaged by shelling, as Russia's attack on Ukraine continues, in Kyiv, Ukraine, in this handout picture released March 14, 2022.

State Emergency Service | Reuters

What I am looking at March 14, 2022

More In CNBC Investing Club Newsletter

The way I'm thinking about stocks makes them winners no matter what the Fed or bonds do

Jim Cramer