Stocks poised for near-term rally after S&P 500 flirts with bear market, but selling is not over

Published Mon, May 23 20222:36 PM EDTUpdated Mon, May 23 20223:58 PM EDT

Patti Domm @in/patti-domm-9224884/@pattidomm

The stock market's bounce back from the brink of a bear market has set up the potential for a near-term rally, but there could be more pain in store for stocks this summer, say strategists who follow price charts. Friday's sharp intraday drop to a low on the S & P 500 of 3,810 was a brush with a bear market, but its bounce back all the way to 3,900 by the closing bell that day may signal the market is now prepared for several weeks of a run higher, the analysts say. However, strategists say the rally doesn't signal the market has found a bottom. "We think we hit a low but not the low," said Ari Wald, Oppenheimer technical analyst. Wald said the next zone the S & P 500 could reach is 4,100, and it could hit 4,300 before selling resumes. "A lot of indicators hit marginal extremes, but I wouldn't call them deep extremes. …Typically these declines last seven months, from the median peak to trough. We're at four months," Wald said. "For now, I think the market is positioned for a bear market counter-trend rally." He said it is notable that the percentage of Russell 3000 stocks with a buy signal rose to the highest level since March. "You're seeing a broadening list of stocks seeing the pace of their declines slow," he said. The S & P 500 was up 1.7% at about 3,968 Monday afternoon. "I think that for right now it looks like the bounce is going to extend this week or a little bit more," said Mark Newton, head of technical strategy at Fundstrat . "Getting above 4,100 for me is the first key technical level that says this could extend." Newton said the S & P 500 reached the 3,815 level Friday that he has been targeting. "That doesn't mean you go up, up and away," Newton said. However, he said it may be time for investors who want to buy and hold to look for some bargains. "Short term, it looks like we are going to bounce and continue Friday's bounce. ... It's going to take time before you see all these downtrends broken." "If I had to forecast the next couple of months, we probably rally out of this and get a retest in late June and July," Newton said. That period would coincide with the next two Federal Reserve meetings, when the central bank is expected to raise interest rates. It also coincides with a typically negative historic pattern for the market. The second and third quarters of mid-term election years are often weak, followed by strong fourth quarters. Newton said the market has the chance of reaching a bottom in the June-July period. "We might have a seasonal weakness, like we [often] do in September and October, and then we have a great fourth quarter. I think we'll have a higher second half," he said. He noted that technology has begun to outperform the S & P 500 on a relative basis and health care looks attractive, due to its outperformance in recent weeks. "That both of these sectors are showing relative strength this week is important as to why stock indices could rally," he noted. The S & P technology sector is down 7.4% in the past month, about the same as the S & P 500, but the health-care sector was down just 2.3% in that period. Newton said health care breaking out in equal-weighted terms versus the S & P 500 should "prove to be a tail wind" for the index. While a decline of 20% from market highs has been termed a bear market by some, Newton noted that his view of a bear market is different. He said the S & P 500 has already been in a bear market, because more than 60% of its components had fallen 20% or more from their 52-week highs. When the S & P fell below 3,837 Friday — the threshold for an unofficial bear market — it didn't close at that level. While there are no official rules for what constitutes a bear market, some market pros believe the index would have to end a day's trading 20% below the last closing high before it has entered a true bear market. Scott Redler, who follows short-term technical trends at T3Live.com, said Friday's action was important, but not a clear signal about where the market will bottom. "There definitely was a bit of a washout Friday. That was the first time in a long time it felt like there was really fear," said Redler, adding that the current rally is untested. "Traders aren't in a rush to short or buy this. They want to see how the action shapes up." There are some immediate hurdles for the market to navigate. Strategists had expected the market to rally last week. But negative news from Walmart and Target unleashed a wave of selling that went beyond the retailers' shares and engulfed the entire stock market, on concern that consumer spending is weakening. Another batch of retailers report earnings this week, starting with Nordstrom and Best Buy Tuesday and including Costco and Macy's on Thursday, among others. Those reports could be the next test for the market. Strategists say the Treasury market is helping stabilize the stock market. The rapid run-up in the 10-year Treasury yield was a negative for stocks, but it has now backed down well below 3%, to the 2.85% level. The market has been reacting to the end of a cheap money era. Tech and growth stocks are priced on their ability to grow profits well in the future, and a higher cost of money disproportionately affects their valuations. As a result, those areas have been the hardest hit.