JPMorgan sees upside for bitcoin after recent washout

Published Fri, May 27 202212:32 PM EDTUpdated Fri, May 27 20223:49 PM EDT

Bitcoin investors have been swept up in the market carnage this year, but those still holding on should expect at least 30% upside to the cryptocurrency, according to JPMorgan strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou. He reiterated in a note this week that bitcoin's fair value is at the $38,000 level, which implies upside of about 32% for the cryptocurrency from where it's trading. On Friday at 12:30 p.m. ET, it traded at around $28,687. The strategist said the same thing in February , when bitcoin and risk assets more broadly were still on their way down. "The bitcoin to gold vol ratio has declined modestly towards 4x, which in our framework would suggested an unchanged fair value of around $38,000 implying significant upside for digital assets from here," Panigirtzoglou said in a note this week. A preferred alternative asset class He also said digital assets have replaced real estate as the firm's "preferred alternative asset class along with hedge funds." Public markets have already priced in recession risks, while digital assets went through repricing after the collapse of the stablecoin TerraUSD earlier this month, Panigirtzoglou said. "A potential lagged repricing keeps us more cautious on private equity, private debt and real estate over the coming quarters," he said. Bitcoin hit its longest-ever weekly losing streak — eight weeks — this month and market sentiment has been dismal amid a broader sell-off in risk assets this year and the stunning blowup of one of crypto's most popular projects , TerraUSD. Most crypto investors and observers arrived to the market during or after the 2018-2019 "crypto winter." Bitcoin has more than halved since hitting its all-time high of $68,982.20 in November. It was trading in a tight range this year before falling below $30,000 this month after the Terra collapse. Venture capital funding of crypto projects is crucial to the digital asset market, Panigirtzoglou said, and could help it avoid an extended "crypto winter" like the one in 2018. Seasoned crypto investors often say that these bearish periods are optimal for building new projects to have ready for the next bull run. "Thus far, there is little evidence of VC funding drying up post Terra's collapse," Panigirtzoglou said. "Of the $25 billion VC funding YTD, almost $4 billion came after Terra. Our best guess is the VC funding will continue and a long winter similar to 2018/2019 would be averted."