Salesforce's lower guidance reflects deals taking longer to close, not going away

Published Wed, Aug 24 20228:36 PM EDT

Salesforce (CRM) reported a solid quarter after the closing bell Wednesday, but as the macro environment softened over the summer, so did the company's business outlook. Lowered forward guidance was a big disappointment. But deals are not going away, they are simply taking longer to close, a theme flagged by other enterprise software companies and not completely new news. The Dow stock dropped 6.5% in after hours trading. Revenue in the fiscal 2023 second-quarter rose 26% to $7.72 billion, in constant currency, edging expectations of $7.69 billion, according to Refinitiv. Constant-currency reporting helps strip out fluctuations in foreign currency to provide a clearer financial picture. Non-GAAP earnings per share of $1.19, inclusive of a 4-cent benefit from mark-to-market accounting on strategic investments, beat estimates of $1.02, according to Refinitiv. Operating margin — which investors are now watching more closely due to the importance of profitable growth at scale— was 2.5% on a GAAP basis and non-GAAP operating margin was 19.9%, beating estimates of 18.4%. Operating cash flow, another line item that's become increasingly important with the Federal Reserve raising interest rates, fell 13% from the previous year to $334 million, missing estimates of $612 million. Bottom line Salesforce said customers began to take a more "measured approach" to their business. But even in uncertain economic times, companies cannot afford to cut back on their digital transformation journeys, of which Salesforce is an indispensable partner. That's a big reason why we think you need to buy shares of CRM before things start to get better again. After making two different sales over the past few weeks in the $180s, one on July 29 and the other on Aug. 3. We also downgraded our rating to a 2 , our plan is to wait for the stock to washout for a few days and then look to buy back some of the stock we recently sold higher. Hopefully we able to do that before management's newly announced $10 billion repurchase program — the first ever in company history —starts kicking in. We are also lowering our price target to $240, which is still more than 30% higher than the stock's close of the regular trading session at $180. Companywide results Breaking down quarterly subscription and support revenue results by cloud: Sales cloud revenue increased 19% in constant currency to $1.7 billion. Some new wins in the quarter include CDW , Zscaler , and Schneider Electric . Service cloud revenue increased 18% in constant currency to $1.83 billion. Some new wins in the quarter include the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs, Workday and Uber . Platform and other (including Slack, which Salesforce acquired on July 21, 2021) revenue increased 56% in constant currency to $1.48 billion. Some notable expanded users of Slack include the National Weather Service, Coursera, and MercadoLibre. Slack exceeded management's revenue expectations with $381 million in the quarter. This was the fifth consecutive quarter with more than 40% growth in customers spending more than $100,000 with Slack annually. Marketing and commerce revenue increased 22% in constant currency to $1.12 billion. A few marketing wins in the quarter include the expansion of its relationship with Live Nation, L'Oreal , and Tapestry , whose brands include Coach, Kate Spade and Stuart Weitzman. Revenue in data (which includes past acquisitions of Tableau and Mulesoft) increased 13% in constant currency to $1.02 billion. A few big wins in the quarter were Atlassian , Siemens Energy, CBRE Group , and King Power. On a geographic basis, in constant currency, sales increased 21% year over year in the Americas, 35% in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa (EMEA) and 31% in the Asia Pacific region (APAC). Regarding a few other closely watched industry metrics that provide visibility into Salesforce's revenue in the future: The remaining performance obligation (RPO), which represents all future revenue under contract that has not yet been recognized as revenue, ended the quarter at $41.6 billion, up 15% year over year. The current RPO (cRPO), which represents future revenue under contract that is expected to be recognized as revenue in the next 12 months, ended the quarter at $21.5 billion, up 19% in constant currency and matched estimates. Revenue attrition remained around record lows of 7.5%. Other Notes With its quarterly results, Salesforce announced a $10 billion share repurchase program. Benioff said the buyback news does not mean M & A is completely off the table, as management will continue to look for opportunities. Still, we view the repurchase program as a good use of the free cash flow the company generates. Management reiterated its commitment to disciplined margin, cash flow, and revenue growth. We, as shareholders, continue to agree with this philosophy because profitable growth is paramount when the Fed is raising rates. Mark your calendars for Salesforce's annual Dreamforce conference, Sept. 20-22 in San Francisco. This is the event where management highlights new innovations and features and a lot of big deals are typically made around this period. The Investor Day will be held on Sept. 21 , and we'll look for management to update its targets and projections at the event. MuleSoft revenue increased 15% year over year, and it's expected to return to being a tailwind to revenue growth in the back half of the year. Guidance On guidance for fiscal year 2023, management lowered its revenue outlook by approximately $800 million to the range of $30.9 billion to $31 billion, which is below estimates of $31.74 billion. Management now expects an $800 million headwind from foreign currency. Their previous view was $600 million. The rest of the guidance update reflects customers becoming more thoughtful in the way they buy, which Salesforce started to see in July. Sales cycles are getting stretched and deals are being inspected by higher levels of management. Despite this more cautious approach from customers, Benioff reiterated that digital transformations remains the number one priority for CEOs. On margins, management slightly lowered its GAAP operating margin outlook to roughly 3.6% from 3.8% but maintained its non-GAAP guide of 20.4%, an increase of 170 basis points year over year. It's good to see Salesforce's margin outlook hold up despite the lower than previously anticipated revenues. Non-GAAP earnings per share are now expected to be $4.71 to $4.73, down from $4.74 to $4.76, and below estimates of $4.75. The operating cash flow for fiscal 2023 outlook was lowered to 16% to 17% growth from 21% to 22%. For the third quarter of fiscal 2023, management expects revenue of $7.82 billion to $7.83 billion, which is below below estimates of $8.06 billion. This outlook includes a $250 million year-over-year headwind from foreign exchange rates. Non-GAAP earnings per share is expected to be $1.20 to $1.21, below estimates of $1.28. The cRPO is expected to grow 12% year over year, implying roughly $21.056 billion versus estimates of $21.647 billion. Foreign exchange is expected to be a 3 percentage point headwind. (Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust is long CRM. See here for a full list of the stocks.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. 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The Salesforce Tower, left, and the Salesforce West office building in San Francisco, California, U.S., on Tuesday, Feb. 23, 2021.

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