Morgan Stanley strategist who called the bear market sees a new low in the fourth quarter

Published Tue, Sep 6 202211:32 AM EDT

The stock market has struggled lately, and there may be more pain ahead for equity investors, according to Morgan Stanley. Mike Wilson, the bank's chief investment officer and chief U.S. equity strategist, said he expects the S & P 500 to hit a low of around 3,400 in the fourth quarter. That's more than 13% below Friday's close and well below the mid-June low of 3,666. "If a recession arrives," the benchmark index could fall to 3,000, Wilson said. "From there, we think prices will recover to our base (3,900) or bear (3,350) case June 2023 targets," he added. "In the very near term, if back end rates fall, stocks may hold up or even rally until later this month when QT potentially increases and earnings estimates are likely revised lower." The strategist cited continued and "increasingly significant" downside to earnings growth into 2023 for his call. "The next several quarters will end up containing some of the most significant downward revisions to forward EPS forecasts we have seen in the past several cycles," Wilson said. Wilson's call comes as investors are on watch for a retest of the June lows . The market is coming off its third down week in a row. On top of that, September is historically a poor month for the market. "While the June low for stocks and bonds was dramatic, we've consistently been in the camp that it wasn't THE low for the S & P 500 in this bear market," chief investment officer and chief U.S. equity strategist Mike Wilson said in a note Monday. Almost a year ago, Wilson called a 20% pullback in stocks as economic indicators had begun deteriorating. On Monday, he said that while the first half of 2022 has been driven by both "fire" (Fed tightening in response to historically high inflation) and "ice" (disappointing growth), the second half "will turn out to be more Icy than Fiery as slowing growth becomes the bigger concern for stocks, rather than inflation and the Fed." On Tuesday, the S & P 500 briefly fell below 3,900 at one point. Some on Wall Street have suggested that if the index fails to hold the 3,900 level, summer lows could come back into play. —CNBC's Michael Bloom contributed to this report.